Help! 99 flops a set but can't take the heat

[callmedonnie]

Wow. I think CO has pocket three's or an over pair played miserably. Unless he really does have the straight.

That river action is absolutely terrible. Barring reads I think you may have best hand, maybe second best. A straight or pocket tens out there? Maybe, but there is probably an idiot with A10. At least its a possibility.

I think if there was a mistake anywhere it was on river, when you were sandwiched and tried to call when it looked like a raise was inevitable.

I think it's fine. This pot is huge, and I think you win your share of the time against two unknowns on Party 2/4.

[avisco01]

If someone has TT you're just going to have to lose a lot of chips, thats all there is to it. Given the action, it is possible that someone turned the straight with a junky J8s or something. I doubt I'd fold in this spot ever as a set of 9's usually will be the best hand. Given the action on the turn I would think I'd need the board to pair to win though because the coordinated flop and action is troubling. I'm guessing you didn't win the hand which is unfortunate if thats true, but better luck next time you flop a set, they usually are very profitable as we all know.

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, folding the river when I didn't improve is not something I'm capable of, yet. If I had a good read on these two, that both were passive, then I could fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you fold the river and someone flips over 33 for the win, then you have stab your eyes out which would be -ev.

[Emoney]

i'm surprised it took til this post for someone to mention that the BB had a straight.

[elindauer]

Hi Bodhi,

You played it reasonably, but I think you could have saved as much as 4BB this hand. The BB flop action indicates a monster hand. When you combine this with the fact that another player has shown huge strength and you hold a normally powerful but far-from-the-nuts type hand, you should slow down on the turn, hoping to see the river for 3BB.

This wouldn't have saved you anything, as it would surely have been 2 more cold back to you and you would have to call hoping to fill. Once you fail to improve though and it's 2 cold back to you again on the river, with every indication it's going to be 3 or 4 total to see a showdown, I think you are correct to fold.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is seriously crazy. I have PF Raiser on something like AA KK, but I the others I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO probably has TT. If he's very aggressive pre and postflop could have 77. If he's very loose he must have J8s, as players bad enough to play J8 and 64 don't put in this many bets with anything but the nuts.

BB has the nuts, MAYBE, possible 64 if he's really aggressive. As the only player to get into this pot for 1SB, his hand range is wider than anyone else's.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone has TT you're just going to have to lose a lot of chips, thats all there is to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a cop out. We have been given many many clues that 99 is no good. Avoiding the 4 BB loss on the river is quite plausible.

[ QUOTE ]
Given the action, it is possible that someone turned the straight with a junky J8s or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

That str8 was present on the flop, hence all the action.

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'd fold in this spot ever as a set of 9's usually will be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you call the river, you are making a crying call. A set will be good nowhere close to "usually". Oddly, you basically say exactly this in the rest of the post.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. I think CO has pocket three's or an over pair played miserably.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really trying hard to put him on a hand we can beat, aren't you? I'd say these hands are unlikely at best.

[ QUOTE ]
That river action is absolutely terrible. Barring reads I think you may have best hand, maybe second best. A straight or pocket tens out there? Maybe, but there is probably an idiot with A10. At least its a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really believe the reads you're giving? Let's find out. I'll bet $5 CO beats 99, and give you 2:1. I'll give you even money that BOTH players can beat 99 on the same bet. Interested?

[ QUOTE ]
I think if there was a mistake anywhere it was on river, when you were sandwiched and tried to call when it looked like a raise was inevitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

Good luck.
Eric

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If someone has TT you're just going to have to lose a lot of chips, thats all there is to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a cop out. We have been given many many clues that 99 is no good. Avoiding the 4 BB loss on the river is quite plausible.[ QUOTE ]


Once Hero didn't improve to a full house or better, I think its reasonable to fold on the river even though the pot is gigantic. I don't think that its a cop out to say that if you flop 2nd set against top set you're bound to lose a lot of chips though. Given the presence of the straight though, its a little easier to get away from it if the action reaches ridiculous proportions, which happened in this case. Its just tough to automatically put someone on the nuts knowing that poor players will usually misplay or even overplay weaker hands even in multiway pots.

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'd fold in this spot ever as a set of 9's usually will be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you call the river, you are making a crying call. A set will be good nowhere close to "usually". Oddly, you basically say exactly this in the rest of the post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously it would be a crying call. Against typical opponents its possible that someone overplayed bottom set or top two pair, which is why I said a set of 9's, given the board is 10 high, will usually be good, unless you run into the top set or straight of course. Its easy to tell someone that they should have folded, but speaking for myself, I know it would be very difficult to get away from this hand if I were Hero.