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#21
12-19-2005, 08:15 PM
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Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] UTG is 35/0/ (1.1 postflop aggression) SB is 38/7.8/ (0.5 postflop aggression) Prima 1/2 6 max Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls. Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bet, SB calls, UTG calls. Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, SB calls. River A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG bets, Hero folds, SB folds. I was getting something like 10:1 and wasn't closing the action. I didn't think SB would fold or raise so 11:1 is pretty safe estimate. Does UTG have JT here often enough for our call here to be incorrect? [/ QUOTE ] *Grunch* I do think we have to make the decision on the turn. Given the action on earlier streets, there's no reason to think he's improved on the river. Also, sb has shown no aggression so getting raised on the river shouldn't factor into our decision - so the way you played it, a call seems in order. But I'm not sure we shouldn't fold on the turn. What is he raising with that doesn't beat us? Flush draw doesn't seem likely, so what makes sense? JT, 89, AQ-QJ, pair of 5s or 9s? QQ seems unlikely. That's not a lot of hands, but why else is he raising into two players on the turn, esp. when one of them has been agg the whole way? BTW I never make this play in the heat of battle and end up calling down. Probably one of my many leaks. [/ QUOTE ] We have enough outs to draw on the turn.... This wasn't a call based on me going to showdown. 
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#22
12-19-2005, 08:20 PM
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Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
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also keep in mind that because we have two jacks, the likelihood that he has JT is cut in half. [/ QUOTE ] Dam I forgot this. We have to call the turn and fold unimproved. nh
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#23
12-19-2005, 09:47 PM
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Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
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@ Kdawg, the reads are over about 100 hands, maybe not conclusive. But 0 raises over 100 hands is very very passive. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, even though 100 hands isn't much, not a single raise anywhere in that 100 is pretty telling. This really looks more like a fold to me on the turn
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#24
12-20-2005, 01:52 AM
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Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] @ Kdawg, the reads are over about 100 hands, maybe not conclusive. But 0 raises over 100 hands is very very passive. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, even though 100 hands isn't much, not a single raise anywhere in that 100 is pretty telling. This really looks more like a fold to me on the turn [/ QUOTE ] i think the lack of PFR increases his range to include hands like AA/KK/AQ/QQ which we still have four outs against!
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