Blind Steal ?

[Philuva]

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Assuming a typical opponent in the BB, what is the highest valued hand that you have where you open raise and it is folded to the BB and you are hoping the BB folds? ?

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Also, remember that this is a typical opponent who will reraise as well as call from the BB. You are hoping he folds because you think the .75BB you will get from him folding will be higher than the result of the hand if he gives you action.

[DcifrThs]

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You think your EV with KQo will be higher that .75BB if you get action from the BB?

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you can't really look at it like that because of the information available at the two times t-1 and t where t is the flop.

at time t-1 your EV of KQo is the sumproduct of all the wins/losses and probabilities associated with them given your open raise and having no knowledge of what happens after you raise.

at time t, you now KNOW the bb has called and your EV has to be adjusted for time t and is different than that at t-1.

so i guess the question is at time t what hands that you raised with at time t-1 would you have wished the bb folded given that he called.

im not quite sure how to think about it and it doesn't seem like a very useful thought process...if soembody points out why its useful then i'll put some more thought into it.

anyways, to answer your question, it might be that Et[KQo | bb called] > .75bbs because you have position HU and initiative and a good hand that still is very likely best...

Barron

[Peter_rus]

The correct answer to this question leading to other important conclusion: If you're BB and button stealing x% - you should defend with...[]

My set of higher hands i prefer stealing rather than seeing the flop is 88/AQo/ATs. This is assuming both blinds would fold around 35% of time (average players). If they fold lesser % of time - borderline highest hands that worth more than 0.75bb/h is lower.

[Tommy Angelo]

My answer is suitedness-indepenent and position-independent. KQ

[Tommy Angelo]

"If you're BB and button stealing x% - you should defend with...[]"

Let's put a number to it. Let's say the button flagrantly and definitely didn't look at his cards, and then raised. So his raise rate is 100%, and he knows that you know this. What hands do you fold?

(Sorry for this thread hijack, if it is one. I'm really curious what answers are to this question.)

[Peter_rus]

If SB folds i would call with at least 120% of my cards:-). Every flopped pair from this moment has good "implyed" odds and Q-high has SD value.

Seriously, position cost to you from 0.1-0.4bb/h depending on button postflop-personality which cause effect of playing random against rundom to around +0.15 to -0.15bb/h. The worst hands (26o, 24o) from your hands would averaging from -0.4 to -0.7bb/h instead of -0.5bb/h of course if SB folds. Personally, i would still keep folding around 5-10% of time my worst trash just for metagame purposes - to keep button raise it's 100%. Though SB could also adapt quickly and i start to fold somewhat more.

If SB folds everytime. Our stats by positions for example can be looks like:

Button: +0.23 bb/h.
SB: -0.25bb/h.
BB: -0.08bb/h.

(The reason the sum of this isn't zero is because of rake)

[HiatusOver]

Not sure what u are talking about in this thread Barron, maybe u misunderstood the question. The basic question is...if u raise from lets say middle position and its up to the BB, and he hasnt looked at his cards yet with what hands that u have do u want him to look at his cards with and what hands that u have do u want him to just fold without looking. My answer is JJ is the threshold and I know for a fact that it is way closer to a correct answer than KQ or QTs or whatever else u guys have been saying

[David Sklansky]

Sounds right to me.

[DcifrThs]

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Not sure what u are talking about in this thread Barron, maybe u misunderstood the question. The basic question is...if u raise from lets say middle position and its up to the BB, and he hasnt looked at his cards yet with what hands that u have do u want him to look at his cards with and what hands that u have do u want him to just fold without looking. My answer is JJ is the threshold and I know for a fact that it is way closer to a correct answer than KQ or QTs or whatever else u guys have been saying

[/ QUOTE ]

so the question is with what hands do you want the bb to fold given you've raised and it folds to him without any knowledge of the flop. if he folds you win .75bbs so the expected value of the hand at that point has to be > .75bbs given a call to warrant you wanting him to call.

now im with you.

Barron

That has to be the easiest analysis that I've ever read. This is why I read this forum. Gracias, Cabron'.

Tex