Tourney report/some hands from the Legends of Poker $330NL at the Bike - Page 3

cferejohn · #21 08-06-2004, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, in an individual hand, you obviously need a ton of luck.

But, over hundreds of hands, skill wins out.

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You're missing an "of thousands" in that sentence... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ilya · #22 08-06-2004, 06:16 PM

come on guys, it was sooooted.

gergery · #23 08-06-2004, 06:29 PM

Loved your tourney report. Keep 'em comin'

FYI, If strong experienced players make a certain play, it is usually not because they are bad plays (except if you're Hellmuth laying down KK to 77), but its more a question of trying to figure out what he must have believed to make it a good play.

cferejohn · #24 08-06-2004, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FYI, If strong experienced players make a certain play, it is usually not because they are bad plays (except if you're Hellmuth laying down KK to 77), but its more a question of trying to figure out what he must have believed to make it a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

*Scritch scritch* This sounds like you are giving someone a free pass just because they are "good". I don't really agree with that. If sdplayer had been raising a ton of hands or something, it would seem reasonable, but seeing as there is no indication that that is the case, calling a raise with A9s at a full table is a bad play, and I don't care who does it...

SossMan · #25 08-06-2004, 07:50 PM

I could correct a bunch of things in this post, but I choose to just correct one line:

SDplayerB said:
But, you can't rely on luck as the way to make money in a tourney.

<font color="red">Correct Version:
But, you can't rely on luck as the way to make money at tourneys.
</font>

Take a stats class...or better yet, buy the 2002 WSOP DVD and see who won. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

zing!!!

sdplayerb · #26 08-06-2004, 08:28 PM

ummm, i have taken stats classes. And i'll put my math background and ability up against you in a second..you are choosing the wrong guy here.

Yes, no doubt, varkonyi had almost impossible amount of luck.
I believe the biggest hand of the tourney for him was the misplay by Shipley who RR with AJ (which was fine) then called the allin knowing it was a terrible play.
That put varkonyi in complete command.

So keep hoping to get lucky in tourneys..i'm sure that'll do great for you.
Playing with skill is doing great for me.

sdplayerb · #27 08-06-2004, 08:31 PM

I couldn't say it much better myself.

cferejohn · #28 08-06-2004, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ummm, i have taken stats classes. And i'll put my math background and ability up against you in a second..you are choosing the wrong guy here.

Yes, no doubt, varkonyi had almost impossible amount of luck.
I believe the biggest hand of the tourney for him was the misplay by Shipley who RR with AJ (which was fine) then called the allin knowing it was a terrible play.
That put varkonyi in complete command.

So keep hoping to get lucky in tourneys..i'm sure that'll do great for you.
Playing with skill is doing great for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, I think what SossMan is saying is that expecting luck to balance out over "several hundred hands" (i.e. 1 tournament) is not realistic. In fact, to truly "balance out" all the luck may not be acheivable in a tournament player's lifetime, thus the statment that "there is a lot of luck in NL tournaments" is really pretty true. He is definitely not a player who relies on luck, but he certainly is not surprised by it (neither, I suspect, are you, just annoyed by it).

sdplayerb · #29 08-06-2004, 08:44 PM

Oh ok..maybe I misread.
I don't expect to have it even out in a single tourney or even numerous. Heck my lucky has probably been terrible overall.
But, I don't go into any tourney thinking if I get lucky I can go far. I've cashed in big tourneys without a single suckout (it did help two people played terrible against me that were two hue double threws.)

I completely am not surprised by luck.
Actually what a lot of people call lucky, i really don't.
For example we are at 7x the BB, you pushin with QQ and crack my AA. I don't really consider you lucky as you were unlucky to have run into AA in the first place.
If somebody plays it correct or is aggressively betting, that is fine (like the kid that raised with A4 ran into hellmuth's QQ and had to call then won..i find that fine).
So I don't mind somebody playing statistical correct.

I do get annoyed when somebody makes a terrible call and then wins. That is somebody playing to get lucky.

gergery · #30 08-07-2004, 11:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FYI, If strong experienced players make a certain play, it is usually not because they are bad plays (except if you're Hellmuth laying down KK to 77), but its more a question of trying to figure out what he must have believed to make it a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

*Scritch scritch* This sounds like you are giving someone a free pass just because they are "good". I don't really agree with that. If sdplayer had been raising a ton of hands or something, it would seem reasonable, but seeing as there is no indication that that is the case, calling a raise with A9s at a full table is a bad play, and I don't care who does it...

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I'm not giving someone a free pass because they are good. I'm asking if there might be some logic that we're missing on the surface, because they are a good enough player not to make obvious and bad mistakes. And since Minh has more bracelets than most I think I'm better served trying to think thru why he made the call and what he was thinking, rather than immediately dismiss his play as bad.

And while calling with A9s in that situation doesn't sound like a great play to me, you could make a decent argument for it since Minh's getting ok odds preflop (in fact correct odds to call if he knew QQ was your hand), and he could reasonably expect a player who would check down top set when a diamond flush shows up to be the kind of player who might laydown TT/JJ in that spot.