Pop quiz

[ QUOTE ]
I would say this is an easy fold because u think ur behind, and in low limit holden the best thing if ur not sure u have the best hand or drawing for the nuts is to fold and wait for a better hand!

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If you think this way, you probably still can make money at the low limits, but you will get slaughtered the moment you move up. You need to study this game more, and read "the right" books

[mtgordon]

Realizing that you might be ahead cannot make your hand worse. If it is likely enough to make calling a river bet profitable then it adds +EV to your hand. If it's not profitable (-EV) then it puts you back in the same boat as before. Call on the turn and fold the river. I really don't see how any other argument can be made here. I think people are getting confused because they assume they HAVE to call the river even if it's -EV for some reason.

[Michael Davis]

The two streets are independent. You call on the turn because you have the odds to draw out, which is obviously correct. But then on the river, you don't improve, but the pot is now big enough that calling is correct. Both calls are profitable. So you make them.

This happens a lot when you have something like AQ with the ace of clubs, the board comes with three clubs on the turn and your opponent raises you. You are pretty sure he has top pair beaten, but you call to try and hit the nut flush, brick out, but now the pot is big enough to call on the end. If you had not had a club, you might not have made it to the river, because you would have folded the turn, but that does not mean the river call isn't profitable.

-Michael

[SeaEagle]

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I don't know from where you get these numbers from, cause we're not given any any numbers from OP. I would guess the pot is about 7BB (if he assumes he'll win 1BB extra on average when he hit) on the turn when it gets to you, but it's not important. And in this example it's not the +EV call on the river that makes the turn call possible...

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I think I quote my assumptions in my original post (6BBs in the pot). And I disagree that it's irrelevant to this post.

If you read OP's explanation, what he was really getting at is how you figure implied odds if you're going to call both the turn and the river. Do your required pot odds go up or down? Several people answered to the tune of "You will be investing 2 bets so you need to win the pot over 20% of the time, so you need more outs to call the turn" or "Why does what I'm doing on the river matter. I'll figure that out after I see the river card and action.", both which are not correct.

Granted if you phrase the question: "You have a +EV turn call and a +EV river call, should you call the turn?", pot size doesn't matter. In fact, put this way, it's not an interesting question at all. But if you phrase it slightly differently, say, "You have a very, very slightly -EV turn call and a +EV river call, should you call the turn?", the question is much more interesting and many people get the answer wrong. And, quite frankly, this appears to me to be what the OP was trying to get across.

[detruncate]

I'm busting out sick math skillz. Watch out all you 6th graders. I'm nipping at your heels.

If... "You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely."

Then... the pot has to be 6.5:7.5:1 depending on whether we're basing our "proper odds to draw" on getting 2 bets on the river or 1 (and ignoring rake). Our 5 out draw = 8.2:1, which translates to 10.87% equity.

If... the pot is 6.5-7.5 BB and when "you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved."

Then... our odds of winning UI have to be at least 7.5:2, which gives us 21.05% equity.

Therefore... our total equity = (at least) 30.88%. Folding would be a major mistake.

[SeaEagle]

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Then... our odds of winning UI have to be at least 7.5:2, which gives us 21.05% equity.


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This is incorrect. You make your call on the river based on the pot odds at that time. If there are 7 bets in the pot when you have to make your turn decision (based on the midpoint between your 6.5 and 7.5), then there will be 9 bets in the pot when you have to make your river decision. You only need to win 10% of the time to make calling the river correct.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm busting out sick math skillz. Watch out all you 6th graders. I'm nipping at your heels.

If... "You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely."

Then... the pot has to be 6.5:7.5:1 depending on whether we're basing our "proper odds to draw" on getting 2 bets on the river or 1 (and ignoring rake). Our 5 out draw = 8.2:1, which translates to 10.87% equity.

If... the pot is 6.5-7.5 BB and when "you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved."

Then... our odds of winning UI have to be at least 7.5:2, which gives us 21.05% equity.

Therefore... our total equity = (at least) 30.88%. Folding would be a major mistake.

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I don't think our odds of winning unimproved are anywhere near this good. (We have the odds to call unimproved on the river, but we're not calling a double bet on that street.)

You've set up a situation where we should call down even if we had no chance to improve.

The way the original problem is set up, calling the turn and then calling the river unimproved is +EV, but just barely.

So, although calling is best, folding is not actually a major mistake.