Final Table hand - 76s

[Nate tha' Great]

Reached the final table of one of the ubiquitous $30+3 MTTs on Party. I was getting good cards and happy with my play, trying to work off the realization I made while reading Harrington on Hold 'Em that no-limit really doesn't need to be any more complicated than you make it to be.

I went into the final table with something like the third biggest stack, and gained a few more chips after an obvious push with AKs against a shortish stack. The table collapsed down to three very quickly, which did not allow me much of a chance to develop player reads.

I got a run of cold cards just as we went down to three-handed, and was folding my blinds pretty liberally. The Button in this hand was taking advantage of that by making min-raises whenever it was my blind. I had seen him make a number of highly questonable plays at the final table, always in the form of very liberal all-ins, and he may well have been tilting after having blown some of his stack off.

Stack sizes:
Button T366072
SB T447194
Nate (BB) T336734

Payout structure (this may be relevant)
1st - ~$7200
2nd - ~$4000
3rd - ~$2500

Blinds are 7500/15000.

Button opens for a min-raise to T30000. I call with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and take the flop:

3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

My intention was to checkraise-push, but Button beats me to the punch and pushes himself.

I think he will do this with a very wide range of hands, quite possibly even overcards.

Do I have a call?

[LethalRose]

Id say no, with 300K why risk your entire tournament on a draw, its a decent draw..but I wouldnt risk everything when you dont have to. wait for a better spot when you have something and take his chips.

Esp with 1.5k between 3rd and 2nd.

[zaxx19]

Ditto I like a push here but I hate a call....especially since you might only be drawing for 4 outs...

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
why risk your entire tournament on a draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I don't look at it that way exactly. This guy was making some very, very loose all-ins, and I think he perceived me as being a bit of a folder. If he has something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then I'm a solid favorite.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Ditto I like a push here but I hate a call....especially since you might only be drawing for 4 outs...

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't very many cases in which I'll have just four outs.

The worst I can be up against is J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], in which case I have 6 pairing outs, although he'll have a ton of redraws.

Against, say A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I have 6 pairing outs, 3 gutshot outs, and the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a straight-flush out. I'll win slightly less than a third of the time against that hand.

I'll win slightly more than a third of the time against a set, and around 44% of the time against top two pair.

Against one pair it's just about a coin flip.

[Jason Strasser]

Nate.

This is bad and you cant even think about calling. The most common type of hand your opponent will have here is a draw, and you have ~20bb stack left. If you call, regardless of what type of draw your opponent has (or pair), its unlikely you are the favorite. This fold is trivial IMO.

OTOH, you should not be so liberal about folding your blind. I understand you have a run of cold cards, and there are definitely some very foldable hands to the min raise... However I would be seeing more flops against a very loose opponent like this and playing any pair I could make very hard.

-Jason

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate.

This is bad and you cant even think about calling. The most common type of hand your opponent will have here is a draw, and you have ~20bb stack left. If you call, regardless of what type of draw your opponent has (or pair), its unlikely you are the favorite. This fold is trivial IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

A'ight, I guess I'm dense, but I just don't see why the call is so bad. I need to win approximately 45.5% of the time in order for it to be break-even in terms of chip equity.

Here's a sketch of the hands that I'd assign to my opponent when he pushes:

Set 5%
Two Pair 5%
Big Flush Draw 20%
One Pair >=7 35%
One Pair <=6 10%
Overcards w/o other draws 15%
QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 1%
QJ (other), 9%

And my equity against those hands, with a few simplifying assumptions.

vs Set: 35%
vs Two Pair: 44%
vs Big Flush: 32%
vs One Pair >=7: 48%
vs No Pair: 57% **
vs One Pair <=3: 57% **
QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 15%
QJ 45%

That works out to 45.6%. My draw is more robust than it looks, because I tend to pick up pairing outs when he has cards that would counterfeit my straight/flush outs.

So I think it's as close to breakeven as it gets in terms of chip equity.

Really, I think the question is whether it is +EV in terms of cash equity. It seems to me that the prize structure is such that I'd tend to favor the risk-loving move, all else being equal.

The last thing to consider would be player skill. My feeling at the time was that I was a signficantly better player than the Button, who was reckless enough that he might well have provided me with a better opportunity to double through. OTOH, I am not a tremendously experienced tournament player, especially in shorthanded situations, and I'd imagine that the solid SB was a somewhat better player than I was.

** I'm giving him credit for having one diamond higher than mine.

[zaxx19]

I guess I don't look at it that way exactly...

How else could calling your money off be construed as here with 7 hi?? You are calling on a draw...there isnt any other way to see it.


Perhaps I AM DENSE, but if the man is so liberal moving in couldnt you wait till you are probably a favorite to gamble with him....

As for the chip equity stuff the above is ONE reason why this isnt the only factor in deciding whether to call here.

Where is this need to gamble here coming from??
You are in decent postion and if you feel like you have a pretty good read on the guy and play decently shorthanded(yes I know folding too much is sin #1 shorthanded)why would you feel you must take the worst of it here??

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Where is this need to gamble here coming from??

[/ QUOTE ]

My feeling at the time was that the prize distribution, which would tend to favor a risk-loving play, slightly outweighed the skill disparity, which would tend to favor a risk-averse play.

[zaxx19]

Of course the distribution favors taking risk; BUT IM NOT SURE THAT EQUALS "RISK LOVING" behavior.

You certainly have to be able to stick it in with a monster draw like OESD Fl draw...or even be the pusher with a Gutshot and flush draw....thats Agression and NOT BEING RISK AVERSE.

There is a difference between not being tight-weak and genrally fearing risks(correct short handed play) and being a RISK seeking caller in a sitaution with relatively low blinds, and holding draw of dubious value and>(your situation here).

When you recognize what the difference is perhaps my first post will make more sense.