An all in call

[Gamblor]

This didn't happen to me, but a friend made this call and we were arguing over it. I defended the call.

Very late in a $350 tournament. On the bubble. Very top heavy payout structure (50% to winner, 25% to 2nd, 25% split - unevenly - amongst next 8).

Blinds are 1000-2000, Hero's stack is 5000.

Loose aggresive blind thief moves all in for 5500 UTG (lost most of his stack getting picked off). Superloose calling machine to his immediate left calls for 2/3 of his stack.

Hero has 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP.

Hero "reads" that UTG isn't happy with the call and thus assumes UTG has a couple high cards. UTG could have any broadway hand, any ace, any pair.

Hero calls.

[nsj]

Live cards and a chance to triple up.

MP should call if he wants a shot at a top-two payout.

[schwza]

that's ugly...

65s plays well when you can see the flop with lots of money behind, but it's pretty bad hot and cold. too much of a chance you're playing against an overpair. wait for something better.

the fact that you're on the bubble (even if 10th doesn't pay well) makes this call really bad. you have a good chance of making the money on this hand if you just fold.

[adanthar]

Hero is making this call with 5 behind him, with all relevant stacks at 3xBB (meaning a big stack risks nothing by overcalling), knowing he's in last place in the hand and with the BB having odds to call behind besides.

Hero's call *really* sucks.

[Gamblor]

Hero is making this call with 5 behind him, with all relevant stacks at 3xBB (meaning a big stack risks nothing by overcalling), knowing he's in last place in the hand and with the BB having odds to call behind besides.

I think the more people that come along, the better off Hero is.

[Gamblor]

If Hero had any sort of a stack a fold would be 100% correct. Absolute idiocy to call any playable stack there. But Hero has 2.5 big blinds (BB). He has virtually no chance of stealing the blinds with an all in raise preflop. On his next BB he'll likely be forced to call all in anyway with almost any two - getting 3-1 - as it's correct to call with any two cards if he feels he is not up against a big pair. He has 4 hands left to play. He is slim-to-none to catch any sort of playable hand in those 4 hands. Even if he doubles up in the next 4 hands, he's going to lose 1.5 BB (out of 5 total) when the blinds come around. He's not making the final table unless he wins a big pot, and 65s is the kind of hand that isn't likely to be dominated and can make this slightly +EV gamble worthwhile.

He is currently the lowest chip stack at the table. The bet is 5000 to him with 1000+2000+5000+5000=13000 in his pot. Now, given that Mr. DesperateLAG and Mr. Superloosepassive are in the pot, chances of an overpair go significantly down, meaning Hero (getting 13-5 from the pot for a call) needs to win this 5 out of 18 times (27% of the time) to make it correct. Now let's assume Hero was 100% sure of his read.

So lets run through Twodimes:

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b...Ts%0D%0A6c+5c:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

8d Ah 441752 32.23 925769 67.54 3233 0.24 0.323
Ts Jd 514168 37.51 853353 62.25 3233 0.24 0.376
6c 5c 411601 30.03 955920 69.74 3233 0.24 0.301

</pre><hr />

So Hero must win 27% of the time to break even but according to this he will win 30% of the time. That takes care of Chip EV considerations.

Now, let's decide if it's ok to put his tournament life at risk. He is the super-shortstack and likely will bust out next anyway. Assuming all other stacks here are trying to just make it into the money, they should play super tight until they come up with a good hand to bet all their chips (reality notwithstanding).

Also to consider is Hero's goal. If he attaches more importance to just getting his money back (and a tiny bit of profit, likely a hundred or so at best), then it might be correct to give up that chip EV. But if Hero's goal is to win the tournament (or at least make a big score), as it is for most great tourney players like Gus Hanson, Dan Negreanu, Phil Ivey, etc. then he has to take any +EV situation he can get in order to build the biggest chipstack he can and come to the final table with big enough stack to play the final table.

Call.

[Dawdy]

Hero has nothing invested and is in MP! fold.
Let the superlose player get knocked out or the original caller get crippled so he has to gamble before Hero and superlose has chips to give away.
Even if hero gambles on the next hand hes already in the money.
+EV means very little at this point imo, this play is very negative for your BR and that is the bottom line.
On that point.. what would be worth gambling with in this spot? Is there a hand which could be a call?!

Dawdy

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero has nothing invested and is in MP! fold.
Let the superlose player get knocked out or the original caller get crippled so he has to gamble before Hero and superlose has chips to give away.
Even if hero gambles on the next hand hes already in the money.
+EV means very little at this point imo, this play is very negative for your BR and that is the bottom line.
On that point.. what would be worth gambling with in this spot? Is there a hand which could be a call?!

Dawdy

[/ QUOTE ]

Go look at the payouts again and tell me that. It's 75% to the top 2 places...he needs chips. This looks like a really, really nice situation to do so.

[Ulysses]

Looks great. Hopefully a big stack behind him has a big hand and calls as well.