Party 100 River Decision

freehat · #1 02-11-2005, 12:56 PM

About 2/3 of the way through the Party 100 NL last night. I have just gone on a nice rush to move from 2000 to 8800 in about 5 hands moving in 3 times and just showing down 1 hand which was AA which I just doubled through 2 hands prior to this hand. Villain has not done anything stupid so far, but have only been at the table for about 15 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t2565)
MP2 (t3255)
MP3 (t1590)
CO (t754)
Button (t4876)
SB (t6855)
Hero (t8893)
UTG (t4383)
UTG+1 (t7087)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
7 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t600) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t600) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t400, SB calls t400.

River: (t1400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t300, Hero raises to t1500, SB raises to t4000, Hero?

TomCollins · #2 02-11-2005, 02:03 PM

Easy fold.

kenstall · #3 02-11-2005, 02:22 PM

I like your play until the river. His lead out min bet after calling the small turn bet just screams that he wants you to raise. You needed to just call there. Since you didn't you need to fold. It will cost you more than you've already put in to call with a small flush.

freekobe · #4 02-11-2005, 02:26 PM

Maybe this is a leak of mine, but to me, this is NOT an easy fold. If he had an ace or a king, I'm sure he would've done more than check the flop and then only call your turn bet, a turn bet that smelled of weakness.

He may have hit two pair on the river or was slowplaying a set. I think it's highly unlikely he has Ax clubs or Qx clubs. He would bet one of them on the flop / would've raised on the turn as a semi-bluff or because he thought he had the best hand (which he did).

The only hand that beats you here, imo, is jx clubs. certainly possible, but would he be raising this aggressively with that? maybe.

I don't know...I would've called and been surprised to see a higher flush. But that could be a big weakness of mine

BlackAces · #5 02-11-2005, 02:26 PM

Fold. If you'd led and he'd check-raised a reasonable amount, you could probably call it, but you can't call a reraise. The only thing he could reasonably have given the betting is a better flush.

I probably would have just called the bet on the end...too suspicious.

Dave D · #6 02-11-2005, 02:38 PM

Yeah I agree you probably should have just called his initial bet w/ your flush. T high is just not that strong, even if it is backdoor. But even if you hadn't, the biggest decision maker for me here is his painfully stupid basically minraise on the river. I've noticed this to be one of *the* biggest tells on party at least, and I don't even watch for tells. If someone has a good hand they just love to raise you the minimum, when they should be going all in. The other day, just to see what would happen, I raised back and forth the minimum with someone like literally 6 times (I had aces, preflop) before I type 'you're retarded' and raise all in, and he had QQ. It makes me wonder if those people are just used to limit tourneys or something.

Given what you did, I think I'd still call. Your flush is back door, and you're already kind of invested, it's hard to picture him having Axs here and not raising post flop or preflop, or any of the other hands that beat you.

hurlyburly · #7 02-11-2005, 02:46 PM

This is an easy push for me. 9/10 times he's not giving you credit here. More than likely he's hoping that his 2 pair is good and you have a cold ace, or he misplayed AK. You made a great bet on the river that is screaming "Nope, I don't have a flush, but I know you don't, too".

steeser · #8 02-11-2005, 03:34 PM

I say it's not an easy push or an easy fold...easy call.

Dawdy · #9 02-11-2005, 04:32 PM

How can you have any idea what he has.
You are chip leader at your table.. now. A dangerous opponent so he could have limped with any decent rank 1 or 2 hand incl QcJc or suited ace rag like Ac5c.. I doubt he would have limped with AKo after the last 5 hands. All this would be going through my mind when he raised on the river. I would call his initial bet at this point, if u win your getting 2k, 1/4 of your stack, not bad from the BB with a hand which would go in the bin normally.
To your question, hmmm id call. The pot is now 7.2k so calling the 3.5 extra sint bad pot odds and leaving u 4k if u lose, still 2x more than u had 5 hands ago. At this point in the torney your on a chip build and your on a rush (its better to overextend a rush than to chop it off early in a torney), I would call.

Dawdy

TomCollins · #10 02-11-2005, 04:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a leak of mine, but to me, this is NOT an easy fold. If he had an ace or a king, I'm sure he would've done more than check the flop and then only call your turn bet, a turn bet that smelled of weakness.

He may have hit two pair on the river or was slowplaying a set. I think it's highly unlikely he has Ax clubs or Qx clubs. He would bet one of them on the flop / would've raised on the turn as a semi-bluff or because he thought he had the best hand (which he did).

The only hand that beats you here, imo, is jx clubs. certainly possible, but would he be raising this aggressively with that? maybe.

I don't know...I would've called and been surprised to see a higher flush. But that could be a big weakness of mine

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $100 tournament midway through. Most players aren't stupid enough to bluff-reraise here, where its pretty obvious what the opponent has. Most opponents will just call a set or 2 pair. Maybe 15% of the time your opponent doesn't have a flush, and at least 75% of the times he does have a flush, its bigger than yours.