Home Game hand

[floppy]

I'm in a 12-week poker league, where you get a score for your finish each week (1 = finished first; 2 = finished second, etc. so lowest score is best), and you can use your top 8 scores. There's no bonus points for top finishes, so there's no real bubble.

Here's the hand I'm wondering about: There's 7 players, I'm UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Blinds are 20/40, I have ~1100. Two folds to me and I bring it in for 120. CO calls (his stack has me covered), everyone else folds.

Pot is 300
Flop:
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet 100
CO raises to 300

Here's my thinking:
CO is a solid player, so Harrington's Rule aside (at least 10% chance anyone is bluffing), I think he has at least a K. Also, KQ is a pet hand of his, so that possibility is prominent in my thinking.

I currently have 900, and it costs me 200 to call. If he has KQ or a set of Ks or As, I'm way behind and the call is wrong. I'd also be pretty close to pot committed, so I'm thinking the choice here is to raise all-in (again, pot committed) or fold. The 200 to call makes it a 900 pot, and if he calls my all-in I'm probably toast, so it's 900 to win 700.

There's 13 combinations of AA, KK, QQ, and KQ. There's 16 combinations of KJ and KT, so it's very borderline. I guess Harrington's Rule would push it to an all-in, but that didn't occur to me at the time. Also, you gain every time someone else goes out, and there's a second table as well, so staying in the game is important (rather than no bubble, as I stated before, it's like there's always a bubble if you look at it this way)

I thought about it and folded.

The only other possibility that I can see would be to call the 200, which would make the pot and my remaining stack 700, then fire 100 if the next card was a spade (he probably doesn't have the flush, since it's the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the board, but he might think I have it) or 200 if it's anything but a Q (he might put me in a decision for everything, but checking or a weaker bet would simply invite it).

So, was my reasoning at the time sound (let's assume Harrington's Rule didn't exist), and is the post-mortem sound (i.e., was calling a better play)?

[strelok]

I think you had him beat there. You were betting 100 into a what a 300 pot? With TPTK you should have made a pot-sized bet. I think he interpreted your move as a steal or a flush draw. You should have pushed. I also don't discount that this could have been an AK vs. AK.

[Apathy]

If your opponent cant have 33 but could have KJ and K10 this becomes and easy push with the flush draw out there(another possible holding for villian).

[gasgod]

I'm assuming you're UTG+2, though I don't think it matters much.

Unless your opponent is a complete dunce, you cannot discount altogether the chance that he is bluffing. I think folding is a mistake. The fact that KQ is a favorite of his carries zero weight, as he would have called with that hand in any event.

Yes, you could be a huge dog, but I would push. (This is likely to be a decisive pot no matter what you do, so you might as well use all your FE.) He might well have raised PF with KK or even KQ, so the chances of either of those is diminished.

Just the opinion of a relative beginner.

GG

[WhineyPkrGuy]

I think you should have been more aggresive PF. I think a bet of 240-300 would be the best option here. You underbet the pot and he probably sensed weakness. He could have many more holdings then what you just mentioned; AQ, any 2 spades, J10, K3, Q3, or just a weak king and he's hoping you had a medium pocket pair (88-Tens).

If you plan on calling the raise then I don't think you have any option other then jamming the turn to pick up this pot unless you want to check fold, because he doesn't seem like he will fold to another 100 chip bet in a 900 pot.

Of course this is also my first post so take it FWIW. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]