Calling all-in with strong draws?

[JKDStudent]

I'm basically looking to see if my thought-process on this is in the right direction. Here's the hand as best I remember it.

I'm BB with J9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A couple of limpers, I check.

Flop comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] blank (I don't remember, completely insignificant)

I bet, player to my left goes all in, folded back to me. At this point, I have the player to my left covered, though not by a lot. Let's say as a rough estimate, I have 20% more chips than him.

I call. At this point, I'm thinking that regardless of what he has, aside from a better flush draw, I have some VERY strong draws. Open-ended straight flush draw. That alone gives me... 15 outs? 9 spades, and 6 non-spade cards that will make my straight.

Because it's relevant to my thought process, the other guy showed pocket aces, making all of my outs good. The turn came another jack, giving me another five outs (the two jacks and the three nines which would give me a set or two-pair, respectively)

I don't regret the call at all, as I was on a VERY strong draw. Even when he showed pocket aces, I felt I made the right call. So... validation? Is my thought-process here correct, or do I need to re-evaluate?

Extra information: We were still in the rebuy portion (and there had already been a couple). Only a six or seven-man game with top three getting something.

[eastbay]

C'mon, you have to get past this hand-wavy "strong draw" stuff. What do you estimate is your chipEV for the play? What was it actually?

eastbay

[floppy]

If all 15 outs are good (as they are here), you're a 54% favorite to win the hand.

[Mr_J]

Using an odds calculator you are 56.3% fav here. That was using 2c as the insignificant flop card. So just looking at those hands you made the right call. However, you don't know he has AA.

He limps preflop UTG. I'd discount KK and QQ since he'd probally raise (get rid of Ax). He went all in with a flush draw on the board, so I'd assume he's protecting a PP or made hand (trips). This leaves 88,TT,JJ,AA and maybe AT. You are better side of a coinflip vs AA and JJ, a worse than coinflip vs TT and 88, and v comfy over any other hands.

My impression is that this hand is too marginal?

[Marcotte]

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=724017
pokenum -h ah ad - js 9s -- 8s ts 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 8s 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 433 43.74 557 56.26 0 0.00 0.437
Js 9s 557 56.26 433 43.74 0 0.00 0.563

I would bet 1/2 to 3/4 pot on the flop and hope to get raised. Even if he has the As, you're not too bad off.

As Ad 469 47.37 521 52.63 0 0.00 0.474
Js 9s 521 52.63 469 47.37 0 0.00 0.526

Worst case, he has a pair and better flush draw.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=724023
pokenum -h as 2s - js 9s -- 8s ts 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 8s 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2s 555 56.06 435 43.94 0 0.00 0.561
Js 9s 435 43.94 555 56.06 0 0.00 0.439

[david050173]

I have been treating these as easy folds. You are at best 50/50 to win the pot (unless he is totally bluffing. Sometimes your jack would be a few more outs but that is offset by the times your flush is dominated). It sounds like it is early on so you don't need to make a stand. If it is late I would push (assuming I had any folding equity at all) but calling all in with a coinflip early on seems like a needless gamble.

[boxedIn]

You guys are all missing the extra information. This was during the rebuy portion, and if it's a rebuy I don't know why it's a SNG and why you're posting here but ... considering you can still rebuy, it's an easy call. Not even a debate.

As for if it's not a rebuy ... well, I personally don't think it's worth it to call allin with a less than 60% edge at this early in the tournament, but if you feel like you can use those chips to your advantage, by all means do it.

[Phil Van Sexton]

See this post in Paul Phillips' blog...
strong draws in tournaments

You don't give enough information to say exactly what you should have done, but, as usual, there's more to this hand than "should I call the allin?"

[JKDStudent]

Thanks for the comments, and the link to the blog post. I hadn't considered the big benefit of going all-in myself.

Also, the reason it's posted here is because it was a 1-table-tournament at a local card room.