Raising AK in big blind vs 3 limpers

[SeaEagle]

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Are you saying that raising has a postflop advantage of .35? That's what it looks like to me but that doesn't make any sense since checking should have the advantage postflop.

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If you look at the final profit for a given hand and exactly where that profit was made, you'll see that some happens before the flop and some happens after the flop, even when opponents play correctly. So in the case of AK, if we say the raise makes .6sbs, .24 of that goes into the pot preflop and .36 of that goes into the pot postflop. I can go into more detail on this, but I think it'll only confuse this particular thread - because Eric's approach doesn't worry about where the money goes in and just figures out how much you make across the entire hand.

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Also, where does your 1.4 sb number come from?

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In my post that said "what if your opponents play the same regardless of the pot size", I estimated 16sbs will go into the pot postflop and that AK will end up winning the pot 80% of the time. Using the part of Eric's formula that says how much the draws collect of the pot:
postflop EV is (OriginalPot+PostflopBetting) * DrawWinRate
So for the unraised pot: (4+20)*.2 or 4.8
and for the raised pot: (8+20)*.2 or 5.6

So the draws collect .8 more in the larger pot.

I really wished I hadn't posted the original .24 immediate equity number, because it's based on looking at the problem from a whole different viewpoint than this thread is intended for and, as is often the case, mixing apples and oranges just makes everyone confused. If it helps, I'll try to explain it this way:

When you raise PF, you force 3 more sbs into the pot. If everyone were all in, you would win often enough to collect, on average, .24 of the 3sbs. But everyone isn't all in, and everytime someone folds you earn another little bit of the 3sbs that went into the pot.

If you wanted, you could walk through each betting round and estimate who would likely fold and subsequently figure out how much of the 3sbs you'd collect at that point (this is the traditional way of figuring EV).

Personally, I think there are times when Eric's approach is really sweet and other times when it's not so effective. Figuring implied EV is one of those places where it really shines. He says, in effect, "I don't care when people fold. I just know that the draws are going to take x% of the pot and from that I can figure out how much of the 3sbs is left over for the PF raiser." His approach estimates that the raise earns, in total, about .6sbs. His approach also estimates that another factor (draws are more profitable in a bigger pot) is costing the raised pot .8sbs. So it's fair to say that the raise is going to collect a total of 1.4 of the 3sbs as people fold out and that's going to more than compensate for better price draws are getting.