KK when the top card pairs

[durron597]

Hero.... wishes he had bet more on the flop. Or does he? Stars Turbo $15+$1 second hand. If you call here, what's the worst PP you do it with?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter

CO (t1500)
Hero (t1490)
SB (t1710)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1400)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1400)
MP3 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls t100.

Flop: (t290) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, MP2 calls t100.

Turn: (t490) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t1180</font>, Hero...

[durron597]

Lotta votes for fold. Anyone care to express their thoughts?

[kuro]

I have a hard time putting villain on a queen. He didn't protect against the flush draw by just calling a relatively small bet into a multiway pot. Now the board pairs queens so it's relatively less likely that villain has a queen in his hand. If villain has trips or boated up a lot of times he'd just call the turn and see if you push the river. You're getting 2 to 1 to call the push on the turn. I think you're going to find that villain is betting a mid pair and doesn't respect your button raise or is putting you on AK and betting a scarry card enough to make calling profitable.

What's the argument for folding? It's early and you don't want to go broke against a guy that limp called with AQ/KQ? And you are comfortable enough in your skill that losing 1/3 of your stack isn't a concern?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time putting villain on a queen. He didn't protect against the flush draw by just calling a relatively small bet into a multiway pot. Now the board pairs queens so it's relatively less likley that villain has a queen in his hand. If villain has trips or boated up a lot of times he'd just call the turn and see if you push the river. You're getting 2 to 1 to call the push on the turn. I think you're going to find that villain is betting a mid pair and doesn't respect your button raise or is putting you on AK and betting a scarry card enough to make calling profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost exactly what I was thinking. And I only have to be good 1 time in 4 to break even.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
And I only have to be good 1 time in 4 to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

??? This is a tournament. If you're only right one time in 4 here, you're OTM 3 times guaranteed, one time you double up. That's not a break even proposition.

Edit: Okay, not OTM for sure, but down to 90 chips.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
??? This is a tournament. If you're only right one time in 4 here, you're OTM 3 times guaranteed, one time you double up. That's not a break even proposition.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying CEV is already that far off from $EV in level 3, 9 handed?

Edit: note, I'm not doubling up, I'm quadrupling up, since the money that was in my stack that went in the pot is no longer mine.

[45suited]

Think about it. In three cases, you have almost no chance of ITM. In the fourth, you will have a nice chiplead after doubling up, but there will still be 7 players with stacks that are half as much as yours. Hardly a guarantee of first, but clearly good chances.

So, say I'm playing 4 $11 tournaments. Even if I knew (which clearly your lead is not strong enough to know this) that I would win the 4th tournament, the best case scenario (realistically) is a $50 return on a $44 investment. A measly ROI of 13.6%. That's being generous and "giving" myself a win in the 4th tournament. If I don't bring home a win in the fourth tournament, I'm losing money badly on this set of four games.

So I would never make this call based upon the "I only have to be right one times in four" argument.

If you fold, you still have 970 in all 4 tournaments, with realistic winning chances. So, I think that the call should be based upon whether or not you think you're ahead, not the "only have to win 1 time in 4" reasoning. The blinds are still only t20, this is a significant factor as well.

[tshort]

If I'm correct, pot is 290 on flop. I wouldn't be prepared to give villian 4 to 1 with flush draw out there. I think you should have bet 200 on flop. Then you could be more confident that he has top pair or better.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying CEV is already that far off from $EV in level 3, 9 handed?

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I think that our discussion here is a perfect example of the shortcomings of ICM. The tournament is still 9 handed with deep stacks. I can't believe that being 2:1 in one tournament with 7 opponensts left and essentially out of 3 would be better than still having 48 BBs (but only 2/3 the average stack) in all 4 tournaments from a $EV standpoint for a player of above average (for the table) skill level.

ICM does not take these factors into account and I think it's a big flaw.

[lastchance]

I think 3:1 is bad because you're not actually getting 3:1 here. You're getting slightly better than 2:1.

And I make chip EV moves.

I think players are donkish, and while you see Qx a lot here, you're also seeing smaller PP's and random 6's.