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#31
10-05-2005, 03:33 PM
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Re: Turn decision...
[ QUOTE ]
If he's raising the top ~%30 of his hands, that looks like {AA-44,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,AKo-A3o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q9o} and A7o is 47% against that range...pre-flop is def a muck. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Let's assume he'll release unpaired, no draw, non-ace high flops to a flop bet. Let's assume he'll cap AK. I'm dominated by more aces than I dominate but I can play an ace high flop cautiously. You don't think initiative and position compensate for the miniscule equity disadvantage I have? Are you considering the blinds making the hot/cold simulation profitable? Krishan - 114 
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#32
10-05-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: Turn decision...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he's raising the top ~%30 of his hands, that looks like {AA-44,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,AKo-A3o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q9o} and A7o is 47% against that range...pre-flop is def a muck. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Let's assume he'll release unpaired, no draw, non-ace high flops to a flop bet. Let's assume he'll cap AK. I'm dominated by more aces than I dominate but I can play an ace high flop cautiously. You don't think initiative and position compensate for the miniscule equity disadvantage I have? Are you considering the blinds making the hot/cold simulation profitable? Krishan - 114 [/ QUOTE ] I agree it may not be as cut-and-dry as the hot-and-cold equities, but some other things to think about: - (1) He'll cap with a lot more hands than AK, probably like the top 10%, {66+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+}. In these spots you've put in 2BB with 30% equity against his range, with huge risk of domination. Very, very bad. - (2) Your assumption about him releasing for one more getting 8.5:1 on the flop is far too optimistic IMO. He has correct odds to peel with basically any two. - (3) Hot and cold equity is not the end-all, but if his average starting hand is better than A7o, on average the flop won't change that, and on average your flop bet is also going to be -EV. - (4) Position and initiative are great, but they're significantly weakened when: your opponent has already told you he has a good hand by raising; the pot has become so big that your fold equity is approaching the vanishing point. - (5) Reverse implied odds. When you outflop him, it will usually be by hitting an A. Coincidentally, this card is the best one to kill action against all hands that don't beat you. Worse, it is uber-hard to fold top pair against an aggro opponent even when everything indicates you're beat. Reverse implied odds. There are just a lot better spots to get your money in IMO. Edit - added (5).
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