Weird ITM situation

[Freudian]

Three handed with blinds 150/300. Stacks are even ~2500. UTG limps, SB complete, I am in BB with crap.

Flop AAA. Checked around.
Turn Q Checked around.
River Q SB goes all-in, Hero?

[West]

Figure the most you're getting out of this is 450 chips, and the downside is you're done. And your sandwiched with position so that even if the first guy is just trying to buy the tied pot, UTG could still have the ace. Fold.

[hyde]

the most you are getting is 225 chips with a split. highly likely, but I don't think it worth the risk of running into a slow played Ax........

[Freudian]

I did fold. The other guy called. Neither had the Ace. It hurts the male ego to back down though when you basically know he is trying to steal the 900 chips. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] But on the other hand it also confirmed that I should have a playing advantage over these guys.

[zac777]

For the case of a $20 tourney:

You're in the money, so everyone already has $40 and your new payout structure is 75/25/0

Assuming UTG calls, options are:

fold, 0 chips, 23.2 $EV (2200/2800/2800)
call and lose, 0.0 $EV
call and chop, 26.7 $EV (2500/2500/2500)

so if [chop% * 3.5 - lose% * 23.2] > 0, then the call is correct.

If think one of your opponents turns up QQ, KK, or an A 15% of the time or less, it's a good play. if you think UTG ever folds, it becomes a bit better.

Depends on the players, but given those numbers I think I call a good chunk of the time.

[hyde]

my bad on the math. pot was 900......still, you are looking at 450 or 300.......good bet on his part.....

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
For the case of a $20 tourney:

You're in the money, so everyone already has $40 and your new payout structure is 75/25/0

Assuming UTG calls, options are:

fold, 0 chips, 23.2 $EV (2200/2800/2800)
call and lose, 0.0 $EV
call and chop, 26.7 $EV (2500/2500/2500)

so if [chop% * 3.5 - lose% * 23.2] > 0, then the call is correct.

If think one of your opponents turns up QQ, KK, or an A 15% of the time or less, it's a good play. if you think UTG ever folds, it becomes a bit better.

Depends on the players, but given those numbers I think I call a good chunk of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I am beat less than 15% here, since I would expect them to raise an ace preflop most of the time and QQ/KK for sure. I am pretty sure I would play exactly like SB if I did have the ace though.

[lastchance]

Interesting, actually. I think I call here, because QQ, KK, or an ace really isn't that likely, but can you waste the chips to find out?

I think you can here.

[Freudian]

I did have 2500 after this hand. I think that if I had below 2000 I would have called. And I was able to get them to fold blinds quite often, so I thought my chances of continuing to do it were good.

Anyway, since I won the tourney I will just go into my results-oriented cocoon of denial thinking this was a great laydown.

[zac777]

Oops, there's a little bad math in there.. fold should be 2200/2650/2650. I knew something looked funny.

Changes the threshold to 9% Probably still a call, but getting close to not mattering one way or the other.