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#1
12-22-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: $11; 2nd stack w/6 players holding AQo against early raiser
I just put this in SNGPT assuming the four unknown stack sizes each have 600 in chips. If you assume UTG will call your push, there is no range he could have that makes this +$EV.
Now, the question is, how do you incorporate that into the times he folds to figure you if it would be closer to or even +EV. 
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#2
12-22-2005, 04:35 PM
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Re: $11; 2nd stack w/6 players holding AQo against early raiser
I was surprised he called me, I can say that. After all, my stack is big enough to hurt him.
I'm sure the push is +EV, from an SNGPT standpoint. I'm just sure it's worth the risk. That is, I can conservatively play to get into the money. Or I can make a potentially risky play that's +EV and get busted.
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#3
12-22-2005, 04:39 PM
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Re: $11; 2nd stack w/6 players holding AQo against early raiser
[ QUOTE ]
I was surprised he called me, I can say that. After all, my stack is big enough to hurt him. [/ QUOTE ] It's an $11. If he has something, he's almost always calling. If he doesn't have anything, he's still likely to call to "keep you honest". FE goes way down at an 11. [ QUOTE ] I'm sure the push is +EV, from an SNGPT standpoint. I'm just sure it's worth the risk. That is, I can conservatively play to get into the money. Or I can make a potentially risky play that's +EV and get busted. [/ QUOTE ] The whole point of SNGPT is that it measures risk vs. reward. I think you are using "+EV" inconsistently here.
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#4
12-22-2005, 05:55 PM
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Re: $11; 2nd stack w/6 players holding AQo against early raiser
SNGPT, or perhaps more accurately ICM, measures the equity of a push vs. a fold on the assumption that the stack sizes dictate all that's important to know regarding the state of the tournment. But EV involves more than that.
I guess I should run through some scenarios to find out what it says, but I would be surpised if it came back -EV. However, just because a play is +EV doesn't mean it isn't more EV to do something else. For example, in $11's players tend to play way too passively as the number of players goes down. How much is this worth? Is it worth taking a chance of getting busted with AQo?
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#6
12-22-2005, 05:58 PM
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Re: $11; 2nd stack w/6 players holding AQo against early raiser
I don't know. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
I didn't really care to know. I just wanted to know if my raise was a good one or not.
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