How would YOU! play this hand:

[Mendacious]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you bet small, then you also get additional action from people with stone dead draws

[/ QUOTE ]

BINGO!

[Mendacious]

2)problem and fold to any bet bigger than half the pot if a scare card comes on the turn or river.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to go beyond this a bit.

In reverse thinking, say if I were to hold A2QX without nut flush redraw (or any other redraw possibilities), a tricky player (yeah like you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) bet 1/4 of the pot and I had position on him, what's my best option?

1. Fold.
2. Call, if the turn pairs or completes flush possibility, fold. Then how about the river?
3. Minimum raise with the intention of folding if get potted back (Doing this will get myself run-over a lot in the future).
4. Pot back with the intention of folding if get potted back.

Clearly folding is the best option, am I too conservative?

What's your take?

[/ QUOTE ]

Change Games.

[got0uts]

Haha, very funny. I never saw you quit, and I am not changing either.

Now when I think it again, options 2, 3, and 4 are the leaks of PLO8 play. I standby option 1 unless you come up with a real alternative.

[Mendacious]

I disagree with you completely.

Here are my thoughts on option 2 & why I think it is correct-- as modified by me in my prior post.

First, you are getting 5/1 to call. I'd say conservatively there is at least a 1 in 3 chance you have the only nut straight, in which case-- I hope you would agree this is a terrible fold on your part.

Second, lets look at the worst case scenario, (you are facing a hand like Ribbo's heads up.) In that case, he has 17 outs to get ahead of you (assuming your xx cards are not spades). In this assumption you are getting 3-1 odds, and are a 2.6-1 favorite that he will not improve, but realistically you MAY be facing a $36 bet on the turn with the same odds, SO, you will be getting 5-1, where you are a 2.6-1 favorite on the flop, and 2-1 where you are a 2.6-1 favorite on the turn.

Even from common sense perspective that you ultimately may have risked $42 to get $12, on a hand that your opponent is a favorite to beat you on, you have to figure factor in the chances that he has this exact hand, which I think is far less than 1 in 3.

On balance, I think you have to call with the straight there or you are giving away money.

[emptyshell]

Folding is way too conservative. Call. If the turn is a scare card and you get checked to, bet the pot. If it's not a scare card and you get another weak bet at you, it's read dependent whether you raise or call. Most of the time, a raise will be correct to knock out a draw. If the opponent is tricky, you might want to call down until you are still the nuts on the river. If a scare card hits and you face a strong bet, fold.

You will win a lot of big pots calling down with a BW when the bettor has top set.