nfl futures wins o/u

[kdog]

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The NFC North is just a tad weak as well. But hey if you think Minny, Detroit and the Pack are great teams then by all means play the under 6.5 big.

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No, I don't think any of these three are anything special but I still rank them all ahead of the Bears. Their quarterbacks and lead running backs at least have some NFL experience.

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The Bears won 5 games with no virtually defensive stars last year, injuries abounded

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The Bears riddled with injuries seems to be a yearly saga in Chicago. So...are they just unlucky or do they have some players who can't get through the season healthy? If form holds they'll have some injuries which expose a lack of depth this year too.

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If you give up 14-17 points per game, you need to score about 14-17 to go 8-8. The scored an average of 14.5 points last year and should up that to 17 this season, which is not a lot but enough for this team to win 7 games

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Averaging 17 a game seems like a tall order for this team right now. And if they can't, well, tired defenses tend to give up points late in games. Inept offenses tend to turn the ball over when they try to play catch up. IMO it adds up to another 5-11 or 6-10 season. 7-9 is possible, sure, but I still lean towards the under.

[LargeCents]

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I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

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Both of these are two close to call, for reasons stated already.

Don't you need a pretty definitive advantage to justify tying up your money for such a long time, plus offsetting the juice?

[20Five]

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I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

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Both of these are two close to call, for reasons stated already.

Don't you need a pretty definitive advantage to justify tying up your money for such a long time, plus offsetting the juice?

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well put [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

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I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

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Both of these are two close to call, for reasons stated already.

Don't you need a pretty definitive advantage to justify tying up your money for such a long time, plus offsetting the juice?

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I think I have an advantage on the Bears, I doubt they win 7 games with Orton.

Even by PVing the payout back 3-4 months, it's not that much of a hurdle to overcome. In fact, you can make a case that if you have a decent bankroll, it's better than paying the 5% vig to the casino for 17 weeks in a row.

I will likely not do the Pats bet, but the Bears bet is solid.

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]naj
best to all,

I am a tremendous believer in the variables of defense, special teams and turnover ability as determinants of success. The Bears, when healthy, rate quite well in all of these. The cake schedule helps quite a bit as well.

Of course, if you believe the Bears' D will get banged up again and the offense, on its own and separate of special teams and defensive scores, will only be able to manage 7-10 points/game, then the under is a good bet.

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] hey naj:

how about posting some game winners; gotta help us mere mortals out..

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

I'm trying Scalfie! How ya doing? I had ASU and I think I posted about SoFla and USC and Wyoming.

My pick of the week is now Miami -2.5 down from -3 at FSU.

Naj [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[the34eagle]

Hate to say I told you so. Looks like I'm going to be cashing BIG time at the end of the year with my bet on the bears winning the division (20:1) as well as the over 6.5 wins this year. But you were right, the bears defense is OK.