nut flush hand from Stars $10 rebuy

[mj12]

i am torn between making it 24 or calling. You are not ahead of many hands (ak, smaller flush) and even fewer that call all in. I lean towards call just because i will be sick when he rr me all in.

[adanthar]

If he pushes to a raise you're getting 3.5:1 on the call. I've never, ever (ever ever ever) seen that be a bluff, and if he's decent it will not be a flush. I think that's a safe fold, actually.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If he pushes to a raise you're getting 3.5:1 on the call. I've never, ever (ever ever ever) seen that be a bluff, and if he's decent it will not be a flush. I think that's a safe fold, actually.

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i don't think so after the turn goes check check.

he could be value pushing a Q there after the chch turn.

i think that I'm minraising and calling a push (unhappily)

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
MP leads for 12K. He has ~37K behind. Hero has ~62K.

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Hero raises to 29K (17K more). Villain quickly pushes.

Hero must call 20K of his remaining 33K or fold. Pot odds are 37:1. Well, not really, but they're better than 5:1. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Hero calls thinking villain will have Qx/AA/AK/BS often enough to justify the call.

Thoughts?

[TheJackal]

If you can put him on 1 hand outside of a full house, you have to call given the pot odds. He could have AQ, QJ, smaller flush, AK. I think I clarify things on the turn and throw out a big bet, the pot is already sizable, I don't like having to guess if my hand is good on the river. But given how you played it, call and hope he doesn't have the one likely hand given the action: KQ.

[rockythecat99]

I call and puke when he shows me KQ. Something like this happened to me. The only difference is that I got my flush on the river which paired the board. I called and of course he hit his boat. Oh well.

[schwza]

haven't read the thread....

pre-flop: fine.
flop: i would push here. it's a big bet, but a pot-sized raise would be up to 10k + 31k = 41k, so making it 73k is not crazy. blinds need Q6/K6/KQ/66, and villain needs KQ/66 to call (or trapping QQ/KK/AA/AK, but AA/AK might fold). and obviously if you do get called, you're not in horrible shape.

my problem with the flat call is that you look like you're on a flush draw. if villain has a hand like KJ, i think he's shutting down pretty quickly when the flush card gets there. what was your plan if BB reraised? his hand is looking less and less like 1 pair, but you still have a monster draw.

if you push and win the pot, you increase your stack by ~21k, over 25%. i'd try to do that.

turn: villain could have a pretty wide range right now. it includes 66 and KQ, but the most likely hands are Kx and (less likely) Qx. if he has Qx, you hate to check. villain has 10 outs to beat you, and 8 spades kill your action (if he doesn't have the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). also, if he has a small flush and the board double pairs, you're gonna kick yourself.

i bet here. he has 49k left in a pot of 32, i'll bet 18k. the downside of this line is that he might get away from Kx where he would put in one more bet on the river. but Kx still has 4 outs, and there's no guarantee he'll fold to a bet on the turn (or that he'll call one on the river, especially if another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits.) and yes, btw, i am very willing to go broke here.

river: i never say this, but i'd hit him with the min raise. you want Kx to call a bet, and there's not much more he's gonna call. you lose some value vs. Qx, but Kx is more likely. and call a push.

[gp?]

call the river. seems too much like KQ...

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you make of the monsterBB's minbet on the flop? is it likely that he's simply isolating this weak bet? Was the monster BB doing this often?

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Monster BB was making a lot of weak flop bets (and they were +EV on FE alone).

Since I gave MP credit for being at least semi-intelligent, I couldn't narrow his range much on the flop since he would probably raise with a set/two-pair to charge the draws while also raising with air to punish the big stack's lagginess - maybe not always raising with air due to my presence in the hand, but I had to consider it.

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bah... put in original post.

this makes me raise the river more (i want to more, not a bigger raise), if villain is more likely to raise flop with a flush draw.

[Che]

He had KQ for the flopped 2-pair/turned boat.

I *almost* just called the river and kicked myself for raising.

My flop, turn and river decisions were all questionable so I guess I got what I deserved. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Thanks to all who replied!

Che