Math Question

[RPatterson]

Down to 5 with 950 chips and 150bb I moved in on the button with K7 and the big stack in the bb called with TJ and hit. I was thinking to myself about what a stuipid call that was but then I wondered if he was actually getting the right odds, if he could see my hole cards.

Roughly he's calling 800 to win 1150. 800 divided by 1150 is 69%. Was this a plus ev by 9% or negative ev?

Also he had like 4000 chips and I had been very quiet. Do you guys like his call at all? It might have been plus EV since I held K7 but I think in general it was horrible.

[MikeGuz]

Law of the tournament jungle - big stacks take on small ones to bust them out hang the odds. I was in a tournament last week 5 left I had 52s on the button and called both blinds who were all in and it was a very small part of my stack. My job was to try to bust them out.

It's strategy not math here.

[RPatterson]

It's strategy for the big stack to try to bust short stacks on the bubble by calling with inferior hands? Time to rethink your strategy.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Law of the tournament jungle - big stacks take on small ones to bust them out hang the odds. I was in a tournament last week 5 left I had 52s on the button and called both blinds who were all in and it was a very small part of my stack. My job was to try to bust them out.

It's strategy not math here.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is a strategy, but despite its popularity it is not a good strategy. Usually, it is hideously bad. Read TPFAP.

You have no mandate to knock people out. If you make a stupid call, you pay the full price, but get only a tiny fraction of the benefit, and only when you manage to suck out.

One of the reasons a chip and a chair is worth so much is that people will waste a big stack by making this type of call (against you, and against medium stacks), though usually not quite as bad.

[MikeGuz]

Look I have read TPFAP but the fact remains if I can call 2 tiny stacks with 2 or 3% of mine and have a chance to bust them out I will do it every time. No hand is that much better off than another specially when you are going to see all 5 board cards. You guys go out and play some real tournaments for a few years and come back and try to tell me what's up OK!

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Look I have read TPFAP but the fact remains if I can call 2 tiny stacks with 2 or 3% of mine and have a chance to bust them out I will do it every time. No hand is that much better off than another specially when you are going to see all 5 board cards. You guys go out and play some real tournaments for a few years and come back and try to tell me what's up OK!

[/ QUOTE ]

It’s definitely a loose call and I wouldn’t make it. But its not terrible, as a button with 5xBB could be stealing with a wide variety of hands and he’s chip neutral vs. 99-22, A9-A2 and K9-K2 (almost even money), all of which are more likely than AK-AT, TT which he’s in ok but not great shape (2:1 dog). Only AA-JJ is he in big trouble against.

And you should only be calling 3% of your stack if you’re putting in only 10-20% of the money in the pot. Any more than that and you’re paying too much for the priviledge of busting them.

Qc Ah 559647 40.83
Js Ts 512418 37.38
2s 5c 293243 21.39


Qc Ah 565406 41.25
6s 6c 636717 46.45
2s 5c 163079 11.90

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Look I have read TPFAP but the fact remains if I can call 2 tiny stacks with 2 or 3% of mine and have a chance to bust them out I will do it every time. No hand is that much better off than another specially when you are going to see all 5 board cards. You guys go out and play some real tournaments for a few years and come back and try to tell me what's up OK!

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't tell whether you are intentionally trolling. You have posted bad advice on thread after thread. In case you are serious, thank you for making poker so profitable for the rest of us. If you would like to improve your poker game, I suggest that you pay more attention to what competent people say, rather than spewing your fallacies and misconceptions.

[MikeGuz]

LOL - maybe you beter reread what I said - it is what happens in real life. Telling this guy that bigger stacks don't need much to attack smaller ones id a FACT of poker life. Or you one of those guys who likes to call with AQ then fold when an A hits the board. LOL I have been a winning player for many years - go to the archives in the 99 2000 - look up rounder - same advice that helped many a player willing to listen.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Law of the tournament jungle - big stacks take on small ones to bust them out hang the odds. I was in a tournament last week 5 left I had 52s on the button and called both blinds who were all in and it was a very small part of my stack. My job was to try to bust them out.

It's strategy not math here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly wrong

[Gramps]

If he only needs to pay 800 to win 1150, then based on pot odds, he was clearly correct to call. He's only about 5 to 4 dog. Non-dominated connectors do pretty well against an overcard/undercard combo heads up. What suit the cards are (do you share any suits for 1-card flush possibilities) can change things a percent or two, but regardless he had "odds to call. But he's only about +EV by 3% or so - he only needs to win about 41% of the time (800/1950) to be neutral EV, he wins about 44% of the time (roughly).

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b...+Td%0D%0AKc+7s

Doesn't mean it's the right play when factoring in other "meta-tournament" factors, but strictly based on pot odds, it was. Based on your postion and short stack, he was probably right to suspect that you were pushing some crappy/semi-crappy hand, but I still don't think it's a good play for him, since he could be dominated by semi-crap/lose a chunk of his huge chip gap that he could use to start really pushing people around with.