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#41
11-06-2005, 01:27 AM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
Hi Tewall -- as to giving up a free card, well, really the only hands that I am protecting against with a bet are Ax and some small pocket pair. Those are going to fold.
<font color="blue">Hi Creed! This statement is implying that you can only protect if your opponent folds. If this logic were true, then you should never bet a better hand if your opponent won't fold. Even if your opponent has the correct odds to call, betting a hand that's in front is still preferable to not betting, as a general rule. The down-side to betting here is that your opponent could come over the top, but you don't have enough chips for that to be a worry. </font> But any piece of the flop is calling and I won't help define his hand or know where I stand. <font color="blue">It doesn't seem to me that defining his hand is a great need here, because of the stack sizes.</font> He's 50/50 to have a heart in his hand, that's the most likely draw to hurt me, so I'm going to operate on that assumption. <font color="blue">I think he's only about 37% likely to have a heart, so it's almost 2 to 1 he doesn't. Here's some different scearios. He has(you are): a1)Ax, no heart -- 3 to 1 favorite a2)Ax, heart -- slight dog b1)pair, no heart -- 3 to 1 favorite b2)pari, heart -- coin flip c1)str8 draw, no heart -- 2 to 1 favorite c2)str8 flush draw -- 2 to 3 dog d)nothing -- 3 to 1 favorite e)made hand (set, straight, flush) -- huge dog Checking behind is better when: a)A heart doesn't come on the turn, and the card that does come doesn't improve him to a better hand than yours, and you get your money in as a favorite. In this case he is making a bigger mistake than he would be on the flop. b)He has a heart, a heart comes on the turn, he bets, and you fold. Betting is better if: a)He will come over the top with hands that you are a favorite over, when he would have folded had you waited until the turn. b)A card comes that improves his hand to a better one than yours on the turn. c)A heart comes on the turn, he bets, you fold, and your hand had him beat. Given how you described the player, my impression was that a bet of 150 would give you a good chance of getting all his money in on the flop with you being a favorite, giving the possibility of hands he could have, and how he would be likely to act. In the scenarios I mentioned, you are likely either a big favorite on the flop, are about a coin flip. There were those who thought you'd be better off checking to see what comes on the turn, and then deciding what to do, but what cards do you want to see? Almost any card that falls is a scare card for you. If you consider the possible hands he could have, and the likely results if you bet 150 vs. if you checked, it is my opinion your overall E.V. would be higher if you bet the flop. However, your variance would no doubt be less by checking. I imagine this would lead to you folding when you were really ahead when a scare card comes on the turn, which would lower your E.V., but also lower your variance by quite a bit. It was a very interesting hand to post! Good luck.</font> 
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#42
11-06-2005, 02:52 AM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
I was somewhat surprised that your 37% figure is correct, I guess my intuitions were off in that regard. That does skew things slightly. However, I think it's balanced by the fact that he will fold a number of hands that do not have hearts in them. So, his weighted hand range, assuming he continues with the pot, is at least 50% hearts. Would you agree here?
Here's the problem: if he has a heart in his hand, then a bet does nothing for me, since it's a coin flip at this point. And if he already has me beat, then a bet does even worse. By waiting until the turn comes, I can maximize the chance that I'm putting my money in with the best of it, because then I have a nice edge against a random hand with a heart in it. If the turn is anything but a heart or an ace, my money is going in. With a heart or ace, I'm check/calling. So, basically, his hands that have a piece of the flop and improve, but don't have a heart in them, are going to bust me regardless. If he hits a straight or two pair or something, that's a shame, but I don't feel I can back down against this player. I feel I'm not really giving up EV against these sorts of hands by checking, since a) he's calling a flop bet with those hands and b) I'm putting him in whether or not he hits and c) I won't be able to tell if a random "scare" card (like the 7) improves him, so I'll have to proceed on the assumption that he's just donking it up as usual. BTW, the first of your three advantages of betting out: [ QUOTE ] a)He will come over the top with hands that you are a favorite over, when he would have folded had you waited until the turn. [/ QUOTE ] is not the case with this opponent. He's not a bluffer. Perhaps that skewed me towards a check. The only catastrophic failure of the checking strategy, to my mind, would be if he caught a card with a hand that would've folded the flop. That means Ax, where x is lower than 8, and a small pocket pair. Which is why I talked about protecting my hand by betting those out. But in both those cases, he's got three or two outs, so my -EV downside is minimal, particularly since an ace is going to put me into check/call mode.
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#43
11-06-2005, 03:26 AM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
This last post was helpful, as it gives more information.
If this guy's not a bluffer, why are you planning to call him down if an Ace or a heart comes on the turn? This indicates he is a bluffer, or you wouldn't call him. So if he's likely enough to bluff the turn to make you call him down, why wouldn't he bluff raise the flop, which is a much better play? If I had a heart I would check-raise this flop in a heart beat (so to speak), wouldn't you? If I have a heart in Villain's position, I check the flop, hoping it's checked through. If someone bet 150, I c/r all-in hoping to take it down, but if not, I have outs. That's an easy play. So your assessment that he would not bluff c/r with a heart in this situation doesn't seem right to me. He's another situation where betting gains you money. You bet 150, he calls, a heart doesn't come on the turn, you make a proportionately similar bet on the turn, and he folds. This is actually a likely scenario, assuming he calls your flop bet. The alternative scenario would be you check behind the flop, a heart doesn't come, he checks the turn to you, you bet, and then he folds. By betting the flop you pick up an extra 150 whenever he has a heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn. It sounds like your overall strategy is not to back down against this guy, which means you want to get as much money in as you can, since you are likely ahead. The way to do this is to bet the flop, with the size of the bet being small enough that he will call.
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#44
11-06-2005, 04:58 AM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
This last post was helpful, as it gives more information. If this guy's not a bluffer, why are you planning to call him down if an Ace or a heart comes on the turn? This indicates he is a bluffer, or you wouldn't call him. So if he's likely enough to bluff the turn to make you call him down, why wouldn't he bluff raise the flop, which is a much better play? If I had a heart I would check-raise this flop in a heart beat (so to speak), wouldn't you? If I have a heart in Villain's position, I check the flop, hoping it's checked through. If someone bet 150, I c/r all-in hoping to take it down, but if not, I have outs. That's an easy play. So your assessment that he would not bluff c/r with a heart in this situation doesn't seem right to me. He's another situation where betting gains you money. You bet 150, he calls, a heart doesn't come on the turn, you make a proportionately similar bet on the turn, and he folds. This is actually a likely scenario, assuming he calls your flop bet. The alternative scenario would be you check behind the flop, a heart doesn't come, he checks the turn to you, you bet, and then he folds. By betting the flop you pick up an extra 150 whenever he has a heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn. It sounds like your overall strategy is not to back down against this guy, which means you want to get as much money in as you can, since you are likely ahead. The way to do this is to bet the flop, with the size of the bet being small enough that he will call. [/ QUOTE ] He has little conception of hand strength. He doesn't back down when he's obviously beaten, he'll bet marginal hands. BUT he habitually throws out these 1/4-1/2 pot bets. When he starts throwing out pot bets he has the goods. I suspect I could probably let go of my KK if he bet out big when a heart or A came. He's not gonna checkraise the flop with a heart because he doesn't think that way. IMO. But I really don't want my money to go allin on the flop anyway if he's got a heart, that's an EV-neutral result for me. [ QUOTE ] By betting the flop you pick up an extra 150 whenever he has a heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] You're assuming he drops his heart when I bet the turn. I doubt it.
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#46
11-06-2005, 02:50 PM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
He's not gonna checkraise the flop with a heart because he doesn't think that way. IMO. But I really don't want my money to go allin on the flop anyway if he's got a heart, that's an EV-neutral result for me. [/ QUOTE ] If he won't raise you, and he makes bad calls, that's even more reason to bet. I understand wanting to wait until the turn, so he can make a bigger mistake, but your E.V. should be higher if you bet the flop. [ QUOTE ] You're assuming he drops his heart when I bet the turn. I doubt it. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, then let's consider two situations. We'll simplify the problem so all we're concerned about is the heart draw. We'll assume for Plan 1: a)You bet 150 on the pot, and then a1)Go all-in if a heart doesn't come a2)Villain bets and you fold if a heart comes In this scenario I calculate you expect to gain 314. Plan 2 is wait until the turn to bet, and a)Bet the pot if a heart doesn't come, which Villain calls. b)Fold to a bet if a heart comes. In this sceanrio I calculate an expected gain of 224. This is just looking at the heart situation, making the assumption Villain is on a heart draw, which he needs to catch to beat you. If we look at the situations where Villain is not on a heart draw, betting is even clearer, given that your plan is not to induce a bluff. So it seems to me betting is more profitable than checking. You can let me know if I'm missing something. I think you're line's a perfectly reasonably line, BTW, just that betting an amount like 150 is even better.
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#47
11-06-2005, 03:13 PM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He's not gonna checkraise the flop with a heart because he doesn't think that way. IMO. But I really don't want my money to go allin on the flop anyway if he's got a heart, that's an EV-neutral result for me. [/ QUOTE ] If he won't raise you, and he makes bad calls, that's even more reason to bet. I understand wanting to wait until the turn, so he can make a bigger mistake, but your E.V. should be higher if you bet the flop. [ QUOTE ] You're assuming he drops his heart when I bet the turn. I doubt it. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, then let's consider two situations. We'll simplify the problem so all we're concerned about is the heart draw. We'll assume for Plan 1: a)You bet 150 on the pot, and then a1)Go all-in if a heart doesn't come a2)Villain bets and you fold if a heart comes In this scenario I calculate you expect to gain 314. Plan 2 is wait until the turn to bet, and a)Bet the pot if a heart doesn't come, which Villain calls. b)Fold to a bet if a heart comes. In this sceanrio I calculate an expected gain of 224. This is just looking at the heart situation, making the assumption Villain is on a heart draw, which he needs to catch to beat you. If we look at the situations where Villain is not on a heart draw, betting is even clearer, given that your plan is not to induce a bluff. So it seems to me betting is more profitable than checking. You can let me know if I'm missing something. I think you're line's a perfectly reasonably line, BTW, just that betting an amount like 150 is even better. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not checking flop then potting the turn, I'm checking flop then pushing the turn.
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#50
11-07-2005, 07:31 AM
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Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
You'll bet 450 into a pot of 200? And you think he'll call that? Is he really so bad that he'll call a bet of over twice the pot on a 4 to 1 shot? [/ QUOTE ] Yep. He'd need a pair to go with his heart, or the ace of hearts.
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