one pair, insanely huge pot

[TheWorstPlayer]

OMFG. "No one has the stones to cold call here." Yeah, it takes a ton of stones to cold call here with a draw just like the huge fish that he probably is. Not everyone is trapping with a monster (which would make no sense to do on this board anyways), most people who flat call are on draws.

[djoyce003]

To all those that are afraid of MP's raise:

If he know's UTG is terrible I can see him reraising here to shut out everyone else and get it headsup with UTG....his raise into the "dry" side pot doesn't scare me that much because the main pot is so freakin big it's well worth it to try to shut everyone else out here.

What scares me I think is the CO cold call.....he could be taking a card off with a draw here given the size of the pot...but with someone still left to act he has to think that it could get raised here....i'm kind of puzzled...he's either an idiot on a draw or he's got a set.

I think if hero is ahead here, he's barely ahead....and if he's behind he is WAY behind. given that he's only got $30 in this pot I just can't see calling here....the times he's right and he's ahead he's probably still going to lose nearly 50% of the time, and the times he's behind he's going to lose almost 100% of the time, barring a runner runner full house or something. He is getting a great price on making the call, but he's gotta be ahead almost half the time I think to make a push or something breakeven right?....assume he pushes for $500 and gets called by MP and CO....there is now around $1700 in the pot. Assume he's ahead of a straight draw and a pair + flush draw.

Qs Qh 247 27.35 644 71.32 12 1.33 0.278
4c 4d 230 25.47 661 73.20 12 1.33 0.259
Ad 6d 414 45.85 477 52.82 12 1.33 0.463

Hero is "ahead" but he's still only winning 27% of the time...that makes this roughly breakeven right.

If he's up against a smaller overpair and a combo draw things are a little better...but if he's up against a OESFD and the smaller over pair it isn't good still.

Qs Qh 376 41.64 509 56.37 18 1.99 0.423
Js Jd 65 7.20 820 90.81 18 1.99 0.079
Ad 6d 444 49.17 441 48.84 18 1.99 0.498

pokenum -h qs qh - jd js - 4d ad -- 6s 5d 3d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qh 291 32.23 594 65.78 18 1.99 0.329
Js Jd 55 6.09 830 91.92 18 1.99 0.068
Ad 4d 539 59.69 346 38.32 18 1.99 0.604

and of course if he's up against a combo draw and set.

pokenum -h qs qh - 6c 6h - 4d ad -- 6s 5d 3d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qh 34 3.77 851 94.24 18 1.99 0.044
6c 6h 487 53.93 398 44.08 18 1.99 0.546
Ad 4d 364 40.31 521 57.70 18 1.99 0.410

ouch.

I think there is a pretty good chance that the set and draw is what hero is up against and if that's the case he's getting in his money drawing dead........the question really becomes what hands is he up against most often and I think a set is just too likely...I reluctantly fold here I think.

[xorbie]

The thing you have to think about is this. What sort of hand is MP limping here that he is willing to raise knowing he is very likely to get called by any legitimate hand hero has (he essentially just minraised). I peg him for set or very strong draw, and CO with roughyl the same range but adding in some 99-JJ type hands. I agree that calling has great odds, but you're just so likely to be drawing dead, and there's such bad odds at play here because it's so tough to read the outs here. Any A sucks, a 2 or 7, a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], who knows what might make someone a set on the turn.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing you have to think about is this. What sort of hand is MP limping here that he is willing to raise knowing he is very likely to get called by any legitimate hand hero has (he essentially just minraised).

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree a little bit here....if MP knows that UTG is a donkey, then I think he could be making this move with something as week as TPTK or an overpair smaller than queens, like 88 or 99. Yes his raise is just a "minraise" but he's facing the field with calling a raise and a reraise cold....that's a lot different than min-raising someone who's already bet....UTG is all in so he has already essentially "called" the minraise but that kind of action might be enough to isolate against UTG who he knows is a donkey....if he can fold out hands that have him beat here, then he can isolate against the horrible player and likely win a nice pot....if MP just calls the UTG all-in then there is no way he can isolate and he would very likely face a re-raise...this way he has folding equity and it's fairly considerable...look at how we are all saying that hero should fold...CO has the monster, not MP.

[Mackerel]

If MP just wants to isolate the UTG donkey, why not push instead of min-raise and give hero (who is most likely on a real hand) such great odds to call? Not saying that you're wrong, just seems strange if that is the motivation.

Interesting thread. I would usually just fold my Q's here, but given the great odds to call and the remote chance you're ahead, I don't think it's automatic. But with the CO's cold-call and the fact that you really only have one 100% safe card on the turn (Qc), I still think it's a fold.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
If MP just wants to isolate the UTG donkey, why not push instead of min-raise and give hero (who is most likely on a real hand) such great odds to call? Not saying that you're wrong, just seems strange if that is the motivation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't have too great of a read on him, but at one point he had won like five pots in a row, and tried to steal yet again on the sixth hand when he was in the big blind heads up against me (I was small blind then as the moron between us was sitting out). So while I didn't get to see his hands there, I made the assumption that he was playing trash hands aggressively, and was probably a pretty bad player.

I wanted to post one of the interesting hands I played few days back and it is very similar to this hand. It is complete opposite of the advise given here. I will explain my though process along the way

Live game at a casino,1/2 no limt

UTG, UTG+1,Hero have about same amount of chips ( 250-300 range). My read is both are decent tight players

Preflop
UTG raises to $17
UTG+1 calls $17
floded to Button/Hero

$15-$20 is the standard raise with a big pair at this table. First I thought UTG has big pair (AA/KK) and then UTG+1 call somehow made me think he also has a big pair(not AA/KK). When I looked at my hand I had QQ.
Now I immdeiately put UTG+1 on JJ and was pretty sure UTG had AA/KK and I am a big underdog. But instead of folding here I decided to see what flop brings so I called.

Hero calls , blinds fold.

Flop (pot 53) - 3s 5d , 7c
UTG bets $25
UTG+1 raises to $50
Hero calls $50

By now UTG is confused and he is thinking he might be beat. But still calls $25. This made me somewhat more positive that he had KK than AA.

Turn (pot 203) - [3s5d7c]10d
UTG checks
UTG+1 bets $50
I took some time and then call $50. I wanted to give impression that I made a set here.
UTG starts shaking his head unbelievingly but still calls $50.

My heart was racing here as we all are low on chips compared to the pot sige and its difficult to force a fold

River( pot 353) - [3s5d7c10d]7d
UTG checks
UTG+1 checks
I liked both the river and UTG+1's check. I said all-in with all the confidence I can muster ( about 150 )
UTG thinks, thinks and then flods
UTG+1 calls and shows JJ
Pot - approx 650.
After seeing QQ at showdown UTG left the table in disgust

May be it is not possible to play it this way every time but other than HU, I beleive smooth call by last position puts a lot of pressure on the first guy to act.

(I am a rookie learning poker but this play gave me a lot of confidence.)

Now if you compare this play with the hand in this thread, what difference do you see other than one guy already all-in?
If you think you can beat the all-in hand do you continue in the hand?

[arod15]

You have to fold, even AA looks bad here it appears that someone has hit a set or at least KK with all that action there is a zero % chance your ahead.... Fold, then take a shot or puke because that sucks (not your fault)

[fuzzbox]

I pass, MP should not be bluffing into a dry sidepot, and CO should not be bluffing when he cold calls.

I find it hard to believe that 3 players have worse hands than you here. Also, even if only UTG has you beat, then you still have a 3-way battle for the sidepot, and one guy who raised to created it, and another who cold called.

I pass QQ here.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
I pass, MP should not be bluffing into a dry sidepot, and CO can't be bluffing when he cold calls.


[/ QUOTE ]

FYP