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#11
12-11-2005, 08:37 PM
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Re: AQ beaten by check raise on the river?
Assuming you have TP without the K, villain has 5 outs. He can draw profitably on every street. Taking into account the times that you will have AK, or a flush draw, or AA (so villain does not have all 5 outs) it's close. Not horrible, though.
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#12
12-12-2005, 03:57 AM
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Re: AQ beaten by check raise on the river?
[ QUOTE ]
Really? Playing bottom pair when your paired with a 4 into an aggressive player with a probably higher pair is good play? (Calling i mean) What is the EV on this over the long period? Is it positive or negative. [/ QUOTE ] It's borderline considering potential flush draws and domination against AK, or an already made two pair, but Villian is getting 11:1 at the flop and 9:1 at the turn with an 8.2:1 draw. It's certainly correct to call if you believe you're only up against a pair and that your outs are live most of the time. I'm not sure what the other Villians had but it's the weaker Ace's, small pocket pairs, and gutshot draws that are giving hands like K4 enough dead money to draw with a marginal profit. I think UTG's biggest mistake is limping with K4 UTG. After that there's really no good fold, except for arguably the turn due to reverse implied odds (although in this case Villian got implied odds, but I think that's rare).
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#13
12-12-2005, 04:05 AM
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Re: AQ beaten by check raise on the river?
[ QUOTE ]
Really? Playing bottom pair when your paired with a 4 into an aggressive player with a probably higher pair is good play? (Calling i mean) What is the EV on this over the long period? Is it positive or negative. [/ QUOTE ] The EV on the river call is negative. However in table dynamics I'd hate having typically predictable and passive opponents check-raising me on the river on a consistant basis. Who knows though, maybe they'll do it too often and you'll pick up extra bets.
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#14
12-12-2005, 11:02 AM
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Re: AQ beaten by check raise on the river?
I think you could have saved one bet on the end. There is no way UTG would checkraise three players on a flush card river without a hand better than TPTK unless he is a maniac. You will bump into maniacs at .5/1 occassionally but not even 1 in 16 times. And if he does turn out to be one, he will be losing his entire stack quickly. With a little luck you will get your fair share of it on future hands.
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#15
12-12-2005, 11:05 AM
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Re: AQ beaten by check raise on the river?
You're winning this on the river after he check raises like never.
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#16
12-12-2005, 11:06 AM
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Re: AQ beaten by check raise on the river?
You couldnt protect your hand and got out drawn whilst value betting.
The river call is -EV but if it makes you feel better/Not tilt... Then sure.
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