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#23
12-09-2005, 03:04 PM
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Re: JJ
What will a call do? Ok he bets the turn, now what you just wasted a bet. Fold or raise. With this board any of the players will 3 bet on the flop with 2 pair+ and then you can get away cheap. Calling does nothing, no information. If I had a 2 pair or better Id keep betiing. Id bet again on the turn figuring the PF raiser had AK or AQ with the ace of clubs maybe. Not JJ or better. If I did get raised then I might suspect the big pair especially if I had top 2. No way that player is laying down.
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#24
12-09-2005, 03:04 PM
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Re: JJ
[ QUOTE ]
Raise this one. Its the cheapest way to find out where you are at. Anyone with 2 pair or better is 3 betting here. Evem a flopped str8 will 3 bet considering there are 2 callers chasing. [/ QUOTE ] And any strong draw will pump the pot bloating it to the point that we can't fold. Either way, if we raise and get 3-bet the pot will be so large that we have to see at least the river. So, in what way did that information help you get away from your hand and save bets? Moreover raising the flop does very little to protect our hand and we'd be putting bets in the pot when our equity edge is small if existant at all. Raising the flop is terrible.
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#25
12-09-2005, 03:22 PM
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Re: JJ
And how will putting in 2 BB on the turn help? You think anyone of the fish are laying down then? Also the only draw pumpin it up there is A club draw and how often will any of these 2 have Ax of clubs on this board. For all they know you have AK clubs.
What hands do you think they will put you on on the turn when you raise? If I had top 2 I would put you on top set. Ahhh maybe Im giving the fish too much credit. If they are weak passive players and you are seeing the showdown anyways and these are the type of players that with top 2 can be afraid and just call the turn raise and check the river then I can see a turn raise. I think only the A high club draw is raising here, probably KQ clubs.
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#26
12-09-2005, 03:34 PM
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Re: JJ
I suggest Jason, that you see the world through the eyes of a good player. If everyone sitting at this table was your quality of player, your advice would be right on. However, since we have no information to suggest that our opponents are other than average at best, and some are likely to make bad decisions bad on our raise, I say raise the flop unless I know that I am sitting with dangerous opponents who are in this hand.
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#27
12-09-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: JJ
Hey Qtip, if you saw the turn, could you post it? I think the action there would be really interesting too.
And I would fold this, I can only think of 7 or 8 turn cards I would actually like and if there's a couple LAGs in the pot this could get real expensive.
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#29
12-09-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: JJ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think you're going to loose this hand more than half the time, but I think the size of the pot makes up for that. I think the pot size makes a fold wrong, you probably still have more equitiy than any player currently drawing. [/ QUOTE ] A board like this is rarely going to make it to showdown with only one bet put in on each street. The pot is large but on average our effective odds are no good. [/ QUOTE ] Do you like folding the flop then? I'm starting to wonder if doing a ram and jam on a draw heavy board is actually a leak of mine.
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#30
12-09-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: JJ
Unfortunately, the type of "bad decision" these guys are going to make is to call too much. What we have to do is dodge over half the deck twice - if we're still good now, which is by no means certain. Further, everyone has correct odds to call, at least versus our holding. Our equity has to be pretty darned low, but if the players behind us are passive I can see peeling, hoping to raise a red deuce or something on the turn, just b/c the pot is so big.
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