OE straight draw ...

[pooh74]

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btw I agree that it's a pretty clear call on the flop, whioh is why Im even more inclined to bet, as I obviously dont want to raise with some BS hand, when I have only ten high.

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I think if it were heads up, a bet would be clearly a good move...you could get killed here with two left to act and a T high.

[TeenerBall]

I wouldn't call it OE..maybe 2 way gutshot..but you do have a strong draw.

[The Yugoslavian]

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I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

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I pokerstoved it:
random hand: 52%
any pair, Qx, 8x, 7x: 41.7%

This isn't marginal at all. If I were BB, I would push with any hand except Qx/88/77/87 which I would check.

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I poker calced it last night giving the small stack a pre-flop range of hands ('top' 30% or so)...leaving out big hands. I got +50 chip win on average or so. Something like ~40% win with this particular flop vs. that range. I figured that he's be a bit more likely to push if the flop was favorable for him but I didn't really take that into account. Anyway, with Scuba's ICM math (which I did myself and got the same thing) I think it's a marginal +$EV...certainly not big enough to dissuade me from passing it up.

So, while I'd fold pre-flop and bet out post flop...when I do face this situation I like a fold as I think I can find a better spot for my 330 chips...the tricky thing is that you call, win and now have a clear big stack. This is very enticing and why I think I would call during game conditions. However, I don't like the stack confiuration when I call and lose looking at it now....and I sorta don't mind and actually like the way it is if I fold.

I'd like to think I'm going to outplay the shorty in the next few hands and don't mind keeping him in

Yugoslav

[Phil Van Sexton]

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I'd like to think I'm going to outplay the shorty in the next few hands and don't mind keeping him in


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I hope you can outplay him on future hands because he has outplayed you badly on this hand if you fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

I learned a new term in this thread, and a new concept to ponder...

"survival equity"

Lots to think about now...

Scuba
who thinks it sounds like a good weak/tight scuba word.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I'd like to think I'm going to outplay the shorty in the next few hands and don't mind keeping him in



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I hope you can outplay him on future hands because he has outplayed you badly on this hand if you fold.


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Very strong point. And laughing out loud. I think Yugo thinks (as I do sometimes as well) that he can outplay him with his crafty preflop decisions. Unfortunately, I don't completely agree anymore. They're getting dangerously close to desperation mode (like dfscott's post). I want shorty out. If it were 4 handed, I'd feel different. I continue to not comprehend why you're comfortable with shorty here 5 handed.

[Scuba Chuck]

Curtains, maybe there's a greater point for me to learn here. When is it a good situation to bet out postflop?

I'd like to write out the answer to this question and be critiqued by those of you who suggest betting out is better.

You bet out here because you might win the pot right here. But betting out here isn't appropriate if I didn't at least have some sort of draw, or semi-made hand. If I fail to win the pot by my betting, then I will have created good pot odds for me to win the hand if shorty pushes, otherwise, I'm folding to other big stacks advances. In short, I'm betting to win. If I don't win, I have a second opportunity to win if shorty plays.

That being said, if I didn't have this type of hand, checking would then be more appropriate, correct?

[curtains]

Sometimes I bet out on flops with nothing, but a lot of the time I have at least something, especially when a very short stack is involved so I have some hope if they play with me.

If you plan to call the shortstack's allin, I truly think checking is terrible. The button is folding most of the time anyway, you think the button wants to just indiscriminetly raise to 600-1000 just because we should fear him. Most of the time they just fold....if they call, it's not that big a deal either.

Sometimes I don't have a great way with words, so I feel like my points aren't as lucid as they could be, but I know that checking with the idea of calling the BB's allin is fundamentally unsound.

[curtains]

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I think if it were heads up, a bet would be clearly a good move...you could get killed here with two left to act and a T high.

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How exactly can I get killed here?? Im betting 200 chips, I ahve like 1800 remaining. If my opponents fold 50% of the time, Im making an automatic profit. If my opponents fold 25-30% (or probably even less!) of the time I think its still autmatic profit, as sometimes youll be racing the BB with plenty of chances to win the pot.

I'm hard pressed to believe they won't fold this often, as from my experience they fold around 50% of the time in a lot of these cases. It's just some blind with 2 random cards and someone who limped on the button.

[Al P]

Hmm, would Giga's block model make this a super easy call?