flopping the nuts and folding??

[nicky g]

Here is your nightmare scenario for this hand. Again, you have the most EV. Heads up against the monster wrap/flush draw, you are a slight dog, but you still can't fold given pot odds.

[Cleveland Guy]

Okay,

I see where my fold is wrong. Thank you for pointing it out, but I guess I was a victom of the same book.

[snowden719]

Not exactly the situation you were talking about, but top set can definitely be behind...
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=636627
pokenum -o 9d 9c as 3s - 6c 7c th jh -- 8c 9h 2c
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 8c 2c 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 9c 9d 330 40.24 490 59.76 0 0.00 0.402
7c 6c Jh Th 490 59.76 330 40.24 0 0.00 0.

[nicky g]

Sure, but that's not the same as saying you should fold.

OK I can see an argument for folding if there is a lot of money left to bet heads-up, your opponent raises the pot and you are 100% sure your opponent has the monster wrap and flush draw, and you know he will not pay you any more money if the board pairs. But top set against the monster out draw is pretty rare, and I don;t see how you could ever with confidence put someone squarely on it. And even then I am probably taking off a card and seeing if I can get lots more money in on the turn if the draw doesn't hit and I am now almost certainly favourite. More than heads up and there is no way for you not to be getting the correct odds.

So, anyone apart from SomethingClever ever folded the nut trips on the flop?

[snowden719]

I agree, the situation I described would only be a fold IF you knew opponent for sure had both a monster wrap and flush draw, AND you were playing no limit, seeing as any pot sized bet is giving you 2-1, you will never be in a situation on the flop where you're getting less than a third of the equity in the pot, so yes a fold would be silly here, but it would be theoretically the correct play if you were playing no limit omaha and you knew your opponent had a large wrap and flush draw. As to calling the flop to see the turn, what if the turn brings him a backdoor flush draw also.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=636710
pokenum -o as 3s 9c 9d - 7c 6c jh th -- 9h 8c 2c 3h
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 8c 2c 9h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 9c 9d 14 35.00 26 65.00 0 0.00 0.350
7c 6c Jh Th 26 65.00 14 35.00



In the end, yes one can create hypothetical scenarions in which one would not want to call an all in with top set; but this scenario would likely never happen in real life, or you would be unable to correctly read the situation correctly; so never fold top set on the flop or the turn with no straight or flush possible when playing pot limit.

[svenski]

Very interesting discussion so far. I definately wouldnt fold on the flop. if you are up against a really tough opponent smooth call raises and take it from the turn. However I've seen too many players risking their stack with JJ in this spot that i would hammer the raise button. Once in a while you get called down by top two on the flop and the turn as well, excluding the set because of their holding. Simply said I would have a hard time putting an oppponent on a monster draw here and even in the rare occasion that you are a dog it's not by far as already mentioned.

[gergery]

As a general rule its bad advice. There are certain situations you can construct where a fold would be correct –specifically, where good tight players bets with middle set, another player raises hard with a monster wrap. Then the monster wrap can be a big favorite to you since some of your outs are gone and the pot/implied odds are bad enough for you.

But in general your opponents range of hands will be wide enough and the pot/implied odds good enough that it will make sense to at least call and hope for a blank turn, when you will be a favorite over the wrap.

--Greg