Hypothetical Questions Regarding Limit Selection

[JohnnyHumongous]

For a long time, I have been intrigued by the tradeoffs between risk and reward that are inherently woven in to the game of poker. And by risk vs. reward, I mean both at the micro- level and the macro- level.

Take a hypothetical situation. You are playing X tables simultaneously at limit Y. You have played let's say 200K hands X-tabling at limit Y and thus you are pretty strongly confident in your winrate. You calculate that at this limit you are making $200/hour (or more) with 90% certainty (and the other 10% of the time it's like only $170 or something). You have been playing limit Y for a long time, and you feel very confident in your success there; furthermore, you feel very safe there. The downswings don't bother you, you don't scratch your head and wonder, "Maybe I'm not as good as I thought." You win fairly consistently week after week and your poker-related stress is relatively low.

To move up in limit would require a lot of attention and so you would have to 1-table (maybe 2-table at most) and thus your earn would be slashed, perhaps by 75%. And of course you don't even know how much you are likely to win at the next level, if you even win at all. But you know that to ever reach the "upper echelons" of the game, say 100/200 and above, you would need to attempt those higher limits. You would need to take on a ton of risk and, ironically, MUCH LESS reward (at least temporarily). And because those higher limits are tougher and require much more attention, it may not be possible to play X tables ever again. So you might have to jump up in limit a great deal before you ever match your earn that you are making NOW, with very low risk and low stress. And that's if you can EVER make that earn at the higher limits.

Do people think it's worth it to move up in this situation and give up all the comforts? If no, why not? If yes, how much would you have to be making to stay in the current situation? $300/hour? How about $400? Feel free to take this topic in any direction, I feel it's quite interesting, and practical too, as we do our best to "manage" our poker careers.

[MNpoker]

I'm not certain I get the jist of the post and may be taking this thread in an unintrended direction.

To me people who agonize over 15 / 30 v 30 / 60 are missing the point.
*What's important is Table Selection.*

At certain times I can play 4 15/30 games and feel very comfortable. At other times I can't, could be a myriad of reasons, including my current state of mind and the toughness of the games.

The key is being able to self analyze if you are playing well enough to beat the games you are currently in. If you can't tell if a game is tough or not within about 50 hands then you need to work on that skill as well.

If I'm playing 4 tables and I find myself questioning myself I'll go to less tables (or even just quit). The limit I'm playing doesn't matter.

If I'm playing 2 30 / 60 games and feel like decisions are coming easily and I am making proper plays I may open up a 3rd 30 / 60 table. (Or even a 4th)

Give me an unlimited number of 30 / 60 games with players with numbers like 70 / 5 / .5 and I'll play as many as my system can handle. I don't care what the limit is.

[JasonP530]

Very interesting. You can also move up temporarily, gain the skills necessary to beat the higher games, then move back down and (probably) increase your win rate(and probably your comfort level) at the games you currently play.

[MNpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
Very interesting. You can also move up temporarily, gain the skills necessary to beat the higher games, then move back down and (probably) increase your win rate(and probably your comfort level) at the games you currently play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. I typically play 15 / 30 and 30 / 60. But I do venture into the 100 / 200 game for a $2K everytime I have a month with a $10K gain.

And even though I know that's a -EV play for me, I think that the experience at playing for those limits makes me better at the lower ones. And will allow the move to be easier when I do start playing at that level more often.

[Seether]

Im sure he is talking about higher than 30/60, i.e 50/100 and 100/200.

[DonCaspero]

I think you're dealing with two different ambition levels. Your money ambition and your skill ambition. Most people would be happy to make $200 - that is not the point. If you wish to succeed at the higher levels of poker (or any other sport or business) you need to be driven by the desire to be the best at what you do - not to make the most money with minimal risk. You have to have a certain amount of luck, have a good portion of talent and give up some of your "comfort" in order to make it happen.

I imagine most pokerplayers have somewhat worked their way up thru the poker ladder. How can you quit in the middle before you know for sure that you're not good enough to take it one step further?? If you're good enough to make $200/hour, you can certainly afford to put some of it on the line to see where your game can take you!

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
You calculate that at this limit you are making $200/hour (or more) with 90% certainty

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, what you've calculated is that you were making $200/hr with 90% certainty.

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You calculate that at this limit you are making $200/hour (or more) with 90% certainty

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, what you've calculated is that you were making $200/hr with 90% certainty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I was making $X/hr with 100% certainty... total winnings / total hours played. Imagine I made $280 per hour over the last 200K hands and using my BB/100 and SD numbers I calculate that with 90% confidence I will make $200 per hour going forward.

[elindauer]

Hi Johnny,

Great post. This is something I've pondered in my own "career" quite often. I tend to come to the conclussion that I should move up in limits, and that I'd probably make more immediately. I suspect that I'm falling into the trap of being too comfortable where I am.

For me, comfort is worth a lot, which is why I suspect I'll never make it to the highest levels of the game. I'm a very confident person and believe that I have the necessary skills to do it, but I'm just not enough of a thrill seeker to enjoy the trip. A little part of me is sad about that, but then, I also know that this game will never bust me either.


Random thoughts, take them for what you will.

thanks,
eric

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Johnny,

Great post. This is something I've pondered in my own "career" quite often. I tend to come to the conclussion that I should move up in limits, and that I'd probably make more immediately. I suspect that I'm falling into the trap of being too comfortable where I am.

For me, comfort is worth a lot, which is why I suspect I'll never make it to the highest levels of the game. I'm a very confident person and believe that I have the necessary skills to do it, but I'm just not enough of a thrill seeker to enjoy the trip. A little part of me is sad about that, but then, I also know that this game will never bust me either.


Random thoughts, take them for what you will.

thanks,
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

river in egypt?