Just getting started -- Feedback greatly appreciated

[DarrenJG]

Hello folks,

I am brand new here -- first time on the board -- but it's clearly a wonderful resource.

I am seeking feedback regarding realistic financial returns and time necessary to reach such levels. Any serious feedback would be greatly appreciated. Maybe down the road I can return the favor. I will certainly try to do so.

I am just starting to make a study of poker. I have been a BJ cardcounter for about 7 years and made pretty good money at it. It was basically a part-time job through my latest stint in school. I have good math ability and I am very, very disciplined. I have never had a problem playing properly under stress and avoiding "tilt". As a result of the cardcounting, I also understand, all too well, the swings inherent in this stuff and the idea of expected value, random walk w/ an upward drift, etc. I am a pretty seasoned veteran regarding some gambling concepts, but brand new to poker. At the casinos the only game I EVER played was BJ. It was a job to me, I was not there to play games or "gamble" for fun.

My real job takes a lot of time now and so my card counting has dropped off. The games around here are getting tougher and my partners have more or less disbanded. I don't have time to build or keep a small team together. I like the idea of poker, especially in light of online play.

So, over the past month, I've bought 10-12 poker books -- pretty much all the standards (I tend to really dive into things). I've found my way to this forum. I've read enough to begin to understand the mathematical side and I like it. I have not played yet outside of a very little with some friends. Being so new I am only willing to put maybe $2,000-3,000 in play. Probably start quite small and build up to that. If I saw progress in my play I would be willing to stake myself $5,000 or a little more.

I would really appreciate ANY realistic feedback about the learning curve in poker -- what a pretty fast learner can expect to attain and in what time frame. I enjoy games and competition, but I would be doing this to make some money also -- not just for kicks. What can I expect? What advice would you give me?

I have decent faith in my ability to do well, if there is a realistic chance of doing well. I heard lots of people on forums and in person say that I couldn't make money counting cards -- but I seemed to disprove them. It sounds like there are lots of experienced players here. What does it take to consistently win? What kind of return can be had? How much must one stake? Should I just stick with blackjack and forget about this?

Thanks very much to anybody who had the patience to read this and respond.
Darren

[AKQJ10]

Even though your question was more geared to online poker, I'm going to give my own experience in both online and brick-and-mortar play. I'm also limiting myself to limit because, even though NL is probably more profitable, it's riskier to get started in. Apologies if I'm answering questions you didn't ask.

As a newbie myself (~1 year), I'd say that you should be able to beat low-limit casino games and micro-limit online games after only a few months of "serious hobby" study (5-10 hrs/week, say). You will probably also be able to beat the higher online limits (1/2, 2/4, 3/6) but i don't have experience there so i depend on others' input to form that impression.

The very very hard part is, poker is so high variance that you should EXPECT to go through a big downswing where you WILL question whether you're playing correctly, even though you most likely are playing much better than your opponents. If you've gone through a couple of those in microlimits beforehand, then you'll be less likely to panic when it happens in the more expensive games. I don't know how the variance in Blackjack is, so I can't compare them.

A couple of great resources I got off this forum were:

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Mangatang's page at http://www.kingscascade.com/Poker.html , especially the regimen linked under "Playing Online". I don't think you'll want to wait so long to build up a bankroll, since you already have at least $2K available with more to come once you're confident in your ability. But you probably should play microlimits until you're +100 big bets or so, just to convince yourself that you're playing well (and all those clowns drawing out on you are really playing badly!).

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A great spreadsheet that simulates poker's "random walk" I forget where I found it on here, but my copy is named Streaks.xls so perhaps you could search on that.

[ QUOTE ]
So, over the past month, I've bought 10-12 poker books -- pretty much all the standards (I tend to really dive into things).

[/ QUOTE ]

Heheh... sounds familiar.
HTH. I look forward to more experienced players' answers. Good luck!

[DarrenJG]

This is great input. Thanks.

Regarding swings, do you play with a 300 big bet bankroll? I've seen that number thrown around. So, in a 1/2 game I can expect to weather the downswings with $600? (Assuming I play good fundamental poker)

That seems a lot less volatile than card counting, in which I needed a bankroll 30-40+ times as big to make decent money. This sounds pretty good.

WHat has your experience been with downswings?

Thanks

[SheridanCat]

Darren,

Regarding bankroll, the 300BB number is just a guideline. If you're willing to drop down in limits when you lose signifcantly, you should avoid going broke assuming you are a winning player. 100BB downswings happen to everyone, so be prepared for them. You don't necessarily have to maintain a 300BB bankroll if you are disciplined enough to drop in limits when necessary.

Check this link for a discussion of bankroll along with links to other discussions include risk of ruin equations.

Good luck,

T

[tripdad]

darren,

sounds to me as if you have all the necessary ingredients to make some decent money playing poker. with your bankroll, and assuming as you say, that you are a fast learner, you should be able to jump right in to the juiciest of juicy online $2/4 games. $1/2 would work as well.

if you've read and understood the books you bought, all that's left is getting used to the actual game texture for the table you are playing. i am assuming you will start out in limit games?

a couple must-haves: pokertracker
( http://www.pokertracker.com ) and a rake back deal or two. i would stick to one site for a time until you get comfortable moving money around online. then, you can hit up all the bonus money available by site-hopping. there is also a program called playerview that many here use. i would not get that or gametime+ when first starting out. you really should beat the game soundly before getting it, though if you will be multi-tabling, it is a real plus.

as for swings, the worst swings occur in short-handed play. if you are playing one table of $2/4 or $1/2, it is pretty difficult to have a swing larger than what your bankroll will be, but swings of course do happen. if you hit a downswing to begin with of 100 big bets(BB) or more, post hands on the forumn before playing any more. i suspect you will be just fine, though.

good luck, and give us updates!

cheers!

[DarrenJG]

Thanks for the help! Yes, I plan to start out in limit games and once I build a sound foundation I'll perhaps try some NL. First things first though.

You mention not getting playerview or gametime+ at first. Now, I'm not familiar with these, but it looks like they provide hand stats and whatnot. Will I be at a disadvantage if my opponents are using this stuff and I'm not? I imagine one can use this stuff as a crutch and not learn good fundamentals. Could you explain the use of these types of supplemental software a bit more?

[tripdad]

gametime+ and playerview work in conjunction with pokertracker to give you real time opponents' stats, such as % of time they see the flop, % of time they raise preflop, etc...

with this info, you will know whether or not, with a hand such as KQ, you should re-raise an overly aggressive player, or whether to fold it.

when starting out, you should definitely make it your business to know the players' habits without this aid. i also think they sort of make you lazy, i.e., use it as a crutch. when you get into multi-tabling, it is a great tool to use, as you can't get a great read on your opponents.

note that to get real time info, you need to have pokertracker open and mining the data off your hard drive, which i believe only occurs with partypoker and skins...but i could be wrong about that. in other words, if you play other sites, it does no good at all. someone correct me if i'm wrong.

cheers!

[smoore]

You can use HUDs pretty effectively with other sites but the info is delayed by 5mins or so because the hand histories get emailed to you, you check the email and then pokertracker has to process it and get it to the HUD. Not ideal like the partypoker locally stored hand histories but helpful nonetheless.