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  #1  
Old 11-03-2005, 03:11 PM
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Default Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

If chris simms is starting, bet the house against the bucs, he is so bad. Thats my only pick, unload in favor of the panthers, simms is pathetic.
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  #2  
Old 11-03-2005, 03:13 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

[ QUOTE ]
If chris simms is starting, bet the house against the bucs, he is so bad. Thats my only pick, unload in favor of the panthers, simms is pathetic.

[/ QUOTE ]

The line reflects this already with TB as a Pick at home.
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  #3  
Old 11-03-2005, 03:27 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

Yeah, back when they had one of the best starting QBs in the NFL in Brian Griese, they would have been a sure thing to win this game. I think it is fairly obvious TB does not depend much on their QB to win. I think they will be able to run on Carolina, hence not need Simms to win it for them. Carolina has been awful on the road this year, I like TB in a small upset.
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Old 11-03-2005, 03:41 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, back when they had one of the best starting QBs in the NFL in Brian Griese, they would have been a sure thing to win this game. I think it is fairly obvious TB does not depend much on their QB to win. I think they will be able to run on Carolina, hence not need Simms to win it for them. Carolina has been awful on the road this year, I like TB in a small upset.

[/ QUOTE ]

TB couldnt score against the worst team in the NFL. Simms looked horrible. The Bucs are the last team I would be betting on this weekend.
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  #5  
Old 11-03-2005, 04:04 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

SF may be the worst team in the league, but their defense did what it had to on Sunday. TB's gaining only 43 yards rushing on 20 attempts can't be pinned all on Simms. This line looks about right to me, and I'd feel no more comfortable betting on Carolina than on TB.
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Old 11-03-2005, 04:54 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

When your running game is averaging 2 yards a carry, all but an elite few of the QBs in the NFL would look terrible. Look how much better Anthony Wright was with a running game in the Monday night game. I think that TB will have enough of a running game vs Carolina to beat them at home. Just my opinion. If you disagree, go with the masses that are betting Carolina. SF has been tough at home this year on everyone except for Indianapolis, so this loss is not as bad as it looks on paper. I see value in TB, so I am betting them. I have been wrong about 47% this season, and wrong over 50% last three weeks, so there is an excellent chance you are right.
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  #7  
Old 11-03-2005, 05:19 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

the reason they cant run is because simms is the qb. the niners literally had nine guys in the box, if you watched the game. the 49ers defense is terrible people, think for a second, how many points did the REDSKINS score on them? the defense is pathetic, every team has scored like 40 points on them. im telling you, chris simms is terrible, in college and in the pros. he will lose this game, plus the panthers are a good team, this isnt the 49ers. The 49ers beat this spread, the panthers will do it with little trouble.
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  #8  
Old 11-03-2005, 06:06 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

Well, regardless of what you're telling me, Simms was 21 of 34 for 264 yards, and that isn't terrible. He wasn't particularly good because he made key mistakes: he was sacked five times (not all of which were his fault), he fumbled, and he threw two interceptions, though one of those bounced off of a referee's head. And just because the Redskins put up a lot of points on the Niners doesn't mean that SF's defense was atrocious on Sunday: teams play well or poorly on different weeks, and match up well or poorly with different teams.

Despite all that, you're obviously sold on a Panthers blowout, and I think we've made our respective points. I'll just add that those who deal in absolutes ("guaranteed money"; "simms is terrible") as opposed to probabilities often run into trouble with sports betting. You could well be right that the Panthers win this handily - certainly the majority of bettors agree - but it's not nearly as certain an event as you're suggesting.
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  #9  
Old 11-03-2005, 06:43 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

I dont like this game too much at all... Carolina has had an easy schedule so far and have a nice record but seems to be one of those teams that plays down to the level of their opponent - they've managed to eek out close wins against teams that should easily be beaten: Arizona, GB, and Detroit. I would argue that those teams are all worse than TB is w/ Chris Simms. None of these games were close to blowouts. Also their 2 losses have also come against the horrible Saints and the average-slightly above average Dolphins. They've had one dominating game all year long and that's against the Vikings who everybody dominates.
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  #10  
Old 11-03-2005, 06:53 PM
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Default Re: Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

Every week it seems somoene comes on here and claims a game is "free money" and projects a blowout. How many of those people have been right so far? Nobody really knows what is going to happen in an NFL game. Vegas is predicting a 1.5 pt spread in favor of Carolina. I doubt you are smarter than Vegas, so I will take my chances with TB covering, and I think I will be right 55% of the time or so.
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