$33 - Bubble squeeze play.

[Insty]

Party Poker $30+3 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed)

UTG (t1835)
Button (t3385)
SB (t730)
Hero (t2050)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

UTG raises [1100].
Button folds.
SB is all-In [480]

Hero ??

UTG has been making these wierd raises a lot, but no-one has yet tested him.
Shorty has been TAG but playing anything that looks pretty and sucking out since he was down to 265 chips.

I'm thinking about pushing here.

I don't think UTG can call. I'm guessing he's on a pretty wide range, and he cannot afford to lose to both me and the SB. Even if he does call I'll have to lose to both of them to be in real trouble.

Or should I just fold, and hope for a better hand sometime real soon.

I think folding here is best.

[runner4life7]

hero folds

[psyduck]

fold

[kevkev60614]

Everyone was awfully quick to say fold here. I'm not so sure it's that easy. If OP thinks he has some fold equity here, it might be a push.

I ran some numbers through ICM to illustrate a point. Suppose when OP folds, UTG will win 50% of the time. Further assume when OP calls, each of the three wins 1/3 of the time. If this was the case, according to ICM OP holds 25% of the prize pool when he folds and 28% when he pushes.

I know that ICM isn't as useful here because the blinds are high, and I don't expect that K9o will win 1/3 of the time here. But I think it illustrates that pushing as the bigstack here isn't terrible. And if OP is right about villain and we do have some FE, this may be a push.

[tewall]

You wrote OP holds 25% of the prize pool when he folds, and 28% when he pushes. You must mean hero, right? I'm not running numbers on this, but if he folds, and UTG loses, hero's already in the money, and if UTG wins, Hero still has over 1/4 of the chips. So 25% has to be way too low.

In these situations, your goals are:
1)Two other people go at it.
2)You win without a contest.
3)You win a showdown.

To go contrary to this would require a very good hand. In General you'd much rather have someone else take on the short stack.

[kevkev60614]

If Hero folds from the BB, he's down to <20% of chips, no? Does everybody out there think this is an easy fold?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
If Hero folds from the BB, he's down to <20% of chips, no? Does everybody out there think this is an easy fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. Let's think about this.

Blinds are HUGE. Hero is in BB.

Villain makes what is essentially a min-raise. Which invites Hero "Let's cooperate to knock out Shorty."

Shorty calls. Has to, with any kind of hand.

So, let's say we call also. Donks LOVE the "check-down to knock somebody out" strategy, especially on the bubble.

So we're betting 600 to win 2930. Gotta love those odds. And if we lose to both, we're not yet kevorked.

Plus, we could always bluff the turn or something if a scare card falls.

As opposed to pushing pre-flop, when Villain might very likely say "Ahole. I was trying to be nice. I hate you, so I'm calling." Now we're risking much more.

I don't know. But in Donkland, maybe I call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know. But in Donkland, maybe I call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sign me up for donkland!