(theory post) Balancing one's game

I'm stuck. I can beat the 10/20 games at Party for a mediocre amount (little less than 3bb/100) but whenever I play higher I get burned. For now I'd be content with a higher winrate in the Party games. I just can't seem to find the direction I should look at. I know there are people crushing the - as far as I know - tougher Stars game. I feel like my own game is falling apart rather than improving.

Most hands I read on 2+2 involve postflop play. Someone has a good but not great hand, maybe two pair on the turn, and faces heavy action. The goal is to milk the opponent for the max if ahead and get out cheap if behind. Some sort of hand reading is employed and a play is decided on. These problems are interesting, but usually not too hard to solve using logic. Once you’re in a certain spot, you put the variables in the logic machine that is your brain, perform some rudimentary calculations if necessary, and come out with the most +EV solution.
However, it is much harder to decide in advance which hands are going to be +EV and which are not. In my opinion, deciding on a hand range preflop, with accompanying game plan postflop, is the most difficult and therefore most important part of winning NL.

I’ll post the questions first, and attempt to answer them myself in greater detail later. Too complex? Probably yes. But any hint in the right direction is helpful.

Because most commonly, effective stacks will be 2K, assume this to be the case. Also assume that all players involved are solid TAG and know this of each other. PT stats, I dunno, VPIP 16 PFR 7? They should be interchangeable.

Concept 1: Player A has AA and raises from EP. Player B knows A has a good hand, and calls (for 5% of his stack or less) with 55 hoping to break him. Who is the 'money favorite'? What if A’s hand range is AA-TT, AK and AQ, and B’s QQ-22, AK, AQ, and T9s-54s? (What does he do with KQs and QJs?) In general, if we pick any hand out of both players’ ranges, what’s the play and who’s the favorite?

Concept 2: Player A again raises from EP with AA-TT, AK or AQ. Player B reraises pot to ~300-350 with KK or AA (not an uncommon range on Party). Folded to A. What’s the plan? Suppose B has KK and A calls. Now what?

Concept 3: More generally, what should a player’s hand range be for any given spot? It seems that this has been worked out mathematically for limit, but how does one go about such a thing in no limit?

I call with small pairs because I think it is profitable. PT shows that it is. I raise with big cards because I think it is profitable. If I were to play against myself, this presents a paradox - one side should be the favorite, so one side must be making an error in playing. Similarly, I fold KK to a big reraise because often I'll be staring down the barrel of either the other KK or AA and I'm a huge underdog. But I also don't reraise very often, because what am I to do with AK or QQ if my reraise is called? I started reraising with air or at least sub-standard hands lately. This went well at first, but cost me big in the end. I need to balance my game plan, but can't because I feel I don't fully grasp all the complexities of the game.

I hope this will spawn an interesting and rewarding discussion.

Cheers,

H

[lgas]

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Also assume that all players involved are solid TAG and know this of each other.

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Practice better game selection. I realize you are trying to put some constraints on the situations in your post to make it easier to respond to, but I think this is an important issue because at higher limits it's critical that you have at least 1 or 2 donaters in the game or there's not much point in playing. It's these donaters that you're going to make the vast majority of your money from, and they are not solid TAG players nor are they usually entirely aware of what type of players they are up against. For what it's worth most of my mid/high-limit experience is in live games, not online, but I don't see how it could be that different online.

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Concept 3: More generally, what should a player’s hand range be for any given spot? It seems that this has been worked out mathematically for limit, but how does one go about such a thing in no limit?

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There is no single hand range that is correct for a given spot. There are of course many factors that should impact your choice of hand range at any given moment but in my mind there are two big ones that are always present: 1. Your style of play and 2. the rhythm of the game.

While of course everyone on this board favors the TAG style since it is by far the easiest to be consistently successful with, it is possible to play other styles successfully as well, and even within a TAG style there is room for variation -- as is evidenced by the dissenting opinions on hand play that you occasionally see when an interesting hand is posted. For example, some players are much more comfortable pushing (both meanings of the word) when they know they have a marginal edge and that it's the technically correct thing to do, while most players are more likely to favor waiting for a situation with a much bigger edge. In limit hold'em it is definitely essential that you push marginal edges while in NL you can still be successful by waiting for bigger edges. It's a boring way to play, but it can still be profitable. At least that's my 2 cents.

So back to my original point -- if you are more comfortable playing a looser more aggressive style, your correct starting hand range is going to be vastly different from someone who is more comfortable playing tight. If you can bring yourself to call a 5BB preflop raise from a TAG player with a small suited 2 gapper and then fold if you don't massacre the flop, then you can make a lot of money the times that you do connect well.... (flop is A22 etc) but if you can't bring yourself to fold when you hit a 943 rainbow flop and find yourself facing a raise, then this hand should never be in your starting hand range... and of course if the idea of losing 5BB all those times when this hand misses makes you uncomfortable, then it also should never be in your starting hand range.

And of course you can't play it every time you get it or you'll commit too much money as an underdog and face too many tough decisions which you make mistakes with later -- which brings us to factor #2: the rhythm of the game -- I'm using this phrase as a broad term that encompasses a lot of individual factors -- but a good example is if a player with a large stack that is generally a TAG player but is subject to bad tilt has just lost a big hand, now might be a good time to try to limp with that 4c2c -- because if you do hit you're going to get paid off by someone who's money you wouldn't otherwise have a shot at -- or if you're in the small blind with T4o and the 2-3 donaters in the game have all limped or called a small raise and all of the solid TAG players are out, that might be a good time to call with a hand you would not normally even complete the SB with.

These are just two examples but I guess my point is that it's more important to be able to figure out how to adjust your starting hand requirements on the fly to the ebb and flow of the game at this exact moment than to have a perfect starting hand chart memorized for every position.

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But I also don't reraise very often, because what am I to do with AK or QQ if my reraise is called?

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Assuming you are talking about preflop, I want my reraise with AK or QQ to be called every time because I'm not going to make much money with these premium hands if everyone folds preflop. So once they get called preflop, then you're in the situation you described at the top of your post -- postflop play that is mostly a logic problem that's not too hard to solve. You just have to not let it bug you the times when you reraise with AK/QQ and get called then have to lay it postflop -- think of it this way -- if you're playing well, with these types of hands when the reraise gets called you'll be up against another big hand that's a favorite say 2 out of 5 times, a big hand that's a dog 2 out of 5 times and a bluff or a bad players bad hand 1 out of 5 times. Of the 2 times that you're against a favorite, you might lose an average of 6BB, the 2 times that you're against big hand that's a dog, you might win an avearge of 10 BB and the times that you're against a big dog or bluff you'll win an average of 25BB. If you just made a correct laydown, even though you lost 5-10BB, you've just checked off one of the 2/5 unfavorable outcomes and are that much closer (on average) to one of the 3/5 favorable outcomes.

Of course I made up all the numbers in this example, and in reality the # of times you're up against various hands is dictated by the players you are up against and the amount you win/lose in each scenario is dictated partially by the players you are facing and your ability to extract the max or escape with minimal losses.... but you get the idea. Of course this also re-emphasizes how important good game selection is, because you can see how much better the scenario becomes if you have 5 or 6 total fish and instead of 2/2/1 out of 5 the numbers become 2/2/5 out of 9.

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I hope this will spawn an interesting and rewarding discussion.

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Me too. I'm surprised no one has responded yet. I don't generally respond to these types of questions because until I generally don't really feel that I have much to add, but I've actually had more time to play lately than I usually do and have been thinking about my game much more than usual so some of these thoughts were already on my mind. I hope my thoughts make sense and someone finds them useful.

-
John

[youngin20]

The best advice I can give, is to read a post (if it is still around) by Matt Flynn about pot control. This raise/reraise aspect is a big part of that. you get in 5-10% of your stack with AK, hit top pair, now what? the pot gets bigger, you get screwed. or win a big pot. i think controlling pot size is really controlling what your opponents can do, and can put you in a position where your decisions are much easier to make.

[Jason Strasser]

Reraise with lots of hands.

59s, for example.
-Jason

[James282]

I'd like a link to this post by Flynn if at all possible!
Thanks!
-James

[bobdibble]

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I'd like a link to this post by Flynn if at all possible!

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[Officer Farva]

nh, lgas. The optimal definitive answers sought by this kind of discussion inevitably lead to the following:

there are no optimal rules for NL. But thinking about your game and reading what other think, what styles work, etc can only make you a better player. Unless you read what I write, then you're screwed.

[Big_Jim]

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Unless you read what I write, then you're screwed.

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Dammit.

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I call with small pairs because I think it is profitable. PT shows that it is. I raise with big cards because I think it is profitable. If I were to play against myself, this presents a paradox - one side should be the favorite, so one side must be making an error in playing.

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I am especially intrigued with this part of the OP. This same thing goes through my head often and I feel like I need a better understanding of what do to on either side of this equation. Seems to me like 77 vs AK type matchups should heavily favor the pocket pair. AK will only hit the flop 30% of the time, so it would seem like you should be able to pound away with 77 70% of the time and pick up that pot. Does AK make up for that 70% by being able to represent a high PP? Trying to incorporate the times it's actually 77 vs a higher PP or the times 77 hits a set + the times 77 hits a set and AK hits TPTK just make things too complex for me to think about which type of hand is preferable.

[Ulysses]

I didn't read your whole post, just skimmed it, so maybe this doesn't apply, but I'll just toss it out there.

Against solid players, I've been dumping 22-44 pre-flop recently. I think this is a profitable adjustment.