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#21
11-27-2005, 02:04 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Yuk! If the pot was bigger I would say raise to get the other two players out, but with it the size it is, I think this is a fold. [/ QUOTE ] If the pot was bigger, raising will not get any other people out - it would just make the pot bigger. 
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#22
11-27-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yuk! If the pot was bigger I would say raise to get the other two players out, but with it the size it is, I think this is a fold. [/ QUOTE ] If the pot was bigger, raising will not get any other people out - it would just make the pot bigger. [/ QUOTE ] No, people do not call two big bets cold if they think they are behind in both directions unless they are very loose/stupid. Look at the boards on 5th and tell me which of the other two is likely to call two cold in say a 8BB pot. When the pot gets big you need to maximize your chances of winning it if you have decent equity.
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#23
11-28-2005, 09:33 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
No, people do not call two big bets cold if they think they are behind in both directions unless they are very loose/stupid. [/ QUOTE ] You must not play on Party much, or else you would know that players are indeed "stupid" and "loose" - even at 10/20. No, people won't call 2 bets if they think they're in bad shape in both directions...in fact, they'll probably dump for 1 bet. Thing is, people severly misread the value of their hand (e.g., raising an open pair of aces with two medium pair into 2 other low draws). Seat 1 and/or Seat 2 might think they've got a good draw for low and call - particularly if, as you suggest, the pot is big. [ QUOTE ] Look at the boards on 5th and tell me which of the other two is likely to call two cold in say a 8BB pot. [/ QUOTE ] Both could easily have draws to what *they* think will be the winning hand. Hell, seat 8 might already have an 8 low. Again, under your proposed hypothetical that the pot were bigger, either might call. [ QUOTE ] When the pot gets big you need to maximize your chances of winning it if you have decent equity. [/ QUOTE ] Indeed, this is true, but is irrelevant to the current discussion, where hero has piss poor equity. 2 pair will likely not take high, and will very likely not take low. If you're gonna try to suck out a boat, you want those 2 drawing for low to contribute to the pot. If you catch the miracle, your half will be that much bigger. Heck, you might even scoop if the other players don't catch their draws for low.
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#24
11-28-2005, 11:29 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
You played it straight. 3rd was questionable but not aweful by any means, you were getting a great +EV with the live 6's. I like the bet out on 4th getting at least 1 low to drop. 5th is an easy fold. You rolled craps, cest la vie...
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#25
11-29-2005, 11:37 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
my props to knoll & benwood who concisely expressed some good points - thanks grb for the research & stern warnings as these can be big trap hands. However, I disagree that this is a clear fold. Marginal hands are marginal because they can go either way, and the play of them takes skill and patience as there is no indisputable or easy way to play them. I disagree with grb's 'clear fold' mentality because there is some value in this hand depending on the situation. Sure heads up would be better, but without threat of being raised you can play it as a crapshoot. This particular hand benefits from a connected kicker, though the odds on making a low are pretty dead.
I actually would have checked on 4th street without a read on the players hoping to get a free card(unlikely) and then at least I could fold for two bets. Though often agressive play is the answer, your bet is a semi-bluff, and bluffing works better against a smaller pool - too much liklihood that one or more players will catch a good card again. It was lucky you weren't raised. However, I can't fault you for betting and if I had gotten a read where both a free card and a raise was unlikely, I would have bet too. Fifth street is what makes this a trap hand, as it's harder to fold 2 pair, but you must, especially now that a split pot is likely. You're fortunate that that the ace came sooner than later.
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#26
11-30-2005, 01:13 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
my props to knoll & benwood who concisely expressed some good points - thanks grb for the research & stern warnings as these can be big trap hands. However, I disagree that this is a clear fold. Marginal hands are marginal because they can go either way, and the play of them takes skill and patience as there is no indisputable or easy way to play them. I disagree with grb's 'clear fold' mentality because there is some value in this hand depending on the situation. Sure heads up would be better, but without threat of being raised you can play it as a crapshoot. This particular hand benefits from a connected kicker, though the odds on making a low are pretty dead. I actually would have checked on 4th street without a read on the players hoping to get a free card(unlikely) and then at least I could fold for two bets. Though often agressive play is the answer, your bet is a semi-bluff, and bluffing works better against a smaller pool - too much liklihood that one or more players will catch a good card again. It was lucky you weren't raised. However, I can't fault you for betting and if I had gotten a read where both a free card and a raise was unlikely, I would have bet too. Fifth street is what makes this a trap hand, as it's harder to fold 2 pair, but you must, especially now that a split pot is likely. You're fortunate that that the ace came sooner than later. [/ QUOTE ] You make some very good points in your post. I do believe that the correct move is to fold on fifth. Welcome to the forums [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#27
11-30-2005, 01:42 AM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
my props to knoll & benwood who concisely expressed some good points - thanks grb for the research & stern warnings as these can be big trap hands. However, I disagree that this is a clear fold. Marginal hands are marginal because they can go either way, and the play of them takes skill and patience as there is no indisputable or easy way to play them. I disagree with grb's 'clear fold' mentality because there is some value in this hand depending on the situation. Sure heads up would be better, but without threat of being raised you can play it as a crapshoot. This particular hand benefits from a connected kicker, though the odds on making a low are pretty dead. I actually would have checked on 4th street without a read on the players hoping to get a free card(unlikely) and then at least I could fold for two bets. Though often agressive play is the answer, your bet is a semi-bluff, and bluffing works better against a smaller pool - too much liklihood that one or more players will catch a good card again. It was lucky you weren't raised. However, I can't fault you for betting and if I had gotten a read where both a free card and a raise was unlikely, I would have bet too. Fifth street is what makes this a trap hand, as it's harder to fold 2 pair, but you must, especially now that a split pot is likely. You're fortunate that that the ace came sooner than later. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I think these are important concepts, and so I will continue the discussion. I would first respond by noting that the fundamental rule of split-pot games is that you want to play hands that can scoop or are extremely strong one way. You astutely recognize that this holding in this situation is unlikely to develop into the winning low. Consequently, for it to be playable, you would want to be strong going high, which a pair of 6s clearly is not. I wouldn't play a pair of 6s multi-way in a tightly structured high only game, particularly if I could reasonably assume that the other 6s were dead. I sincerely hope you wouldn't either. That being so, I would certainly not play 6s hoping to win merely the high half of this pot. Whatever your definition of marginal may be, I think the general principles of 3rd street hand selection apply in all cases. Factors that must be considered include ante/pot size, opponent style, implied odds, *relative* strength of cards, and dead cards. In this case, this "marginal" hands is a clear fold because: the game is tightly structured (you're not losing much by folding), you won't get paid much since you're the chances of a scoop are low, a pair of 6s isn't a strong high hand compared to a pair of 7s, pair of 8s, etc, and because your opponents are reasonably decent, you should have a high suspicion that 1 and maybe both of your remaining sixes are in your opponents hands. These factors, imho, make this hand a clear fold. Granted, a pair of 6s with a baby kicker would be a very playable, even good hand under other circumstances, such as if no other lows were on the board, if this was a short handed game, if you had good control over your opponents, etc. However, thats just not the case here. All of us, gamblers that we are, want to find reasons to play hands rather than find reasons to fold hands. The consistent winners develop the reverse tendencies. good discussion
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#29
12-01-2005, 10:06 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
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Very nicely put grb. How much would your decision change if this was a 30-60 game with a $5 ante? [/ QUOTE ] I think changing this factor alone isn't enough to warrant a call. Here are some scenarios where I give best case scenario (i.e. people are playing with equally marginal hands) Assuming your 6s are live (highly unlikely) and only the 10 is paired : EV=.199 6s are live, but the 8s are paired : EV = .193 same, except 1 low opponent has a 6 in the hole (very likely) : EV=.171 Just for kicks: Everyone's got absolute junk (very, very, very unlikely) EV = .247 How about when your opponents going low actually have good hands: 1 strong low + 2 other decent lows : EV=.144 Since I see 3 other people representing low, I'd probably play this under the assumption that someone's got a 6. I'm not putting any more money into that pot!
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#30
12-01-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Very nicely put grb. How much would your decision change if this was a 30-60 game with a $5 ante? [/ QUOTE ] I think changing this factor alone isn't enough to warrant a call. Here are some scenarios where I give best case scenario (i.e. people are playing with equally marginal hands) Assuming your 6s are live (highly unlikely) and only the 10 is paired : EV=.199 6s are live, but the 8s are paired : EV = .193 same, except 1 low opponent has a 6 in the hole (very likely) : EV=.171 Just for kicks: Everyone's got absolute junk (very, very, very unlikely) EV = .247 How about when your opponents going low actually have good hands: 1 strong low + 2 other decent lows : EV=.144 Since I see 3 other people representing low, I'd probably play this under the assumption that someone's got a 6. I'm not putting any more money into that pot! [/ QUOTE ] Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations. However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds. A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong. I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available.
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