Am I crazy? I just folded top pair in a huge pot...

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
im saying your estimate is an underestimate, i think. its just what i feel from the way the hand went and the button played. if hes fitting or folding im sure AAA, KKK, and AAKK fit his hands very nicely.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think AQ or AJ fit? Even if you don't like AJ fitting AT ALL, I'm drawing dead only 10/18 = 56% of the time. I'm still not losing (though I'm not winning much at all).

But at the same time, I completely discounted the king outs as chop outs. Are my kings ALWAYS dead?

There's room to play, but you have to work pretty hard to make it a losing situation.

[SCfuji]

what about 3 way chops. what happens when you throw those into the mix?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
what about 3 way chops. what happens when you throw those into the mix?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're asking something really complicated, because you need to tell me how often I'm chopping 3 ways. I'll do a simplified calculation where I just assume that I'm chopping 3 ways and compute the EV of that. Here is the same information as the first computation, with the only relevant changes in bold. (Well, there's another small change, in that I now only have 44 unknowns in the deck instead of 45, but that's a tiny change.)

[ QUOTE ]
When I have outs...
... I hit my three good outs 3/45 times (I can account for an extra ace in Button's hand, giving me 7 exposed cards). When I hit this out, I win the whole pot, say 18 BB.
... I hit my six chop outs 6/45 times. I win a third of the pot, say 6 BB.
... I miss my outs 36/45 times. I lose 1 BB.

When I don't have outs...
... I hit my imaginary outs 9/45 times and lose 2 BB.
... I miss my imaginary outs 9/45 times and lose 1 BB.

EV = 60% * ((3/45)*(18) + (6/45)*(6) + (36/45)*(-1))
+ 40% * ((9/45)*(-2) + (36/45)*(-1))
= 60% * (1.2 + .8 - .8) + 40% * (-.4 - .8)
= .72 - .48
= .24

[SCfuji]

i fold. good hand. i just feel that such small edges are so wishy washy and tough that i will just end the hand earlier or go all the way.

[Badgerpoo]

First Grunch:

Preflop: I would have just called and folded to the 3bet or cap that ensued.

Flop: No backdoor draws, and a weak draw to Aces and 8's, excluding the diamonds giving at best 6 outs, probably more like 4 discounted. You were getting 17-1 pot odds after SBs bet but could more or less count on a raise behind you. I would fold it there as you're already behind AA, KK, AK-A9, A4, K4.

Turn: Check-Fold

River: Check-Fold