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Fold it here? Overpair JJ vs. all-in raise and call
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter
Button (t510) SB (t1685) BB (t1125) Hero (t735) UTG+1 (t640) MP1 (t950) MP2 (t690) MP3 (t1115) CO (t550) Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t65</font>, UTG+1 calls t65, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t65, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>. Flop: (t217.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero bets 175, UTG+1 raises to 575 all in. MP2 calls. Hero raises to 670 all in. MP2 calls 50 all in. Final Pot: t217.50 I probably used up most of my timebank thinking about whether to call or not. I raised PF and bet on a rag flop, which screams overpair. His re-raise all in screams a set, or perhaps he was semi-bluffing a open-straight /w backdoorflush and/or overcards. (I'd be behind if that was the case, and my J is likely blocking his draws so it's more likely to be a semibluff with QKs than JQs. MP2 is flat calling an all in, and putting himself basically all in. It's unlikely that both have nothing, so I should probably fold here? If I fold, I still have enough to play but will need to start gambling one level before anyone else, and that could be very risky. If I'm wrong, and call, I basically lose the tourney barring miracles. If I'm right and call, I have a very good shot of winning the the whole tourney, but also a good shot of getting outdrawn. |
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