Win rate

[kstamps22]

I played 3/6 and 6/12 for a year and a half and built my bankroll and have recently moved up to 15/30-20/40. I play almost exclusively live games at a casino. Since I moved up I have been winning about $2,000 a week for about 1 1/2 months playing an average of 40hrs a week sometimes more. Is it possible to keep this up or am I running unusually good? What is a good average win rate at this level?
Thanks
Kevin

[elindauer]

The amount of money you are winning is sustainable. That doesn't mean you are not running well though. In fact, if you have to ask this question, the smart money says you probably are.

Here's a test: can you identify exactly why you are better than your opponents? What is it, precisely, that they are doing wrong? If you can, your win rate may be a reflection of your skill. If you can't then at the very least, son't quit your day job yet.

good luck.
eric

[lil feller]

It takes probably a full year of playing 40hrs a week of live poker to even come close to knowing what you're turn winrate is, 1.5 months is pretty small.

lf

[kstamps22]

I realize that this is a short period of time, I just wanted to know what theoreticly is the average sustainable win rate, and if I'm under, over, or about right.

Thanks for the feed back
Kevin

[Alex/Mugaaz]

It's not a real forum until there is a winrate post. Congrats MSH!

[bobbyi]

So you are making $50/hour (or less). That is sustainable at 20/40. Obviously it's also possible you are just running good.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a real forum until there is a winrate post. Congrats MSH!

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so fast. It needs a lot more stats threads (Is my VPIP too high?), a few solid trolls (Is folding AA preflop ever correct?), and a nice long state of the forum thread (What is wrong with MSH?) before it really establishes itself.

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
a nice long state of the forum thread (What is wrong with MSH?) before it really establishes itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the benefits of the cross-fertilization of MSH and HSH by maybe merging them together have yet to be fully explored. Discuss.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
It takes probably a full year of playing 40hrs a week of live poker to even come close to knowing what you're turn winrate is, 1.5 months is pretty small.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fundamentally wrong. You're talking about proving your winrate mathematically, however, there are many other ways to obtain outstanding estimates of your true winrate.

- get a good player to tell you
- evaluate the mistakes you see others making

etc.


Fundamentally, I agree with your advice to the OP that he should be cautious before making big decisions based on his winrate, especially if he has to ask us what a good winrate is.

good luck.
eric

[elindauer]

.