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  #11  
Old 12-03-2005, 08:39 PM
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Default Re: Win rate

Mr. Variance, meet Mr. Kstamp.



Tex
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  #12  
Old 12-03-2005, 09:42 PM
I.Rowboat I.Rowboat is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: S.F. Bay Area
Posts: 36
Default Re: Win rate

Since this is live play in a local casino(s), I think the other considerations are:

1. Are you winning from good players as well as bad? When you win from good players, is it because you played better cards or because you caused them to make mistakes? The cards even out in the eventual "long run," but the ability to cause solid players to make mistakes is one of the hallmarks of playing well.

2. Are you taking this money from the same group of, say, 40 people, or are you constantly facing a new lineup? If you are taking it from the locals and they haven't adapted to your style after six weeks of daily play, bravo, that's pretty good.

3. As Tex said, be prepared for variance. Unless you're playing against total passive boobs, you can expect to see some large swings and you will definitely experience some losing weeks.

Just my .02 cents...
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  #13  
Old 12-04-2005, 08:57 AM
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Default Re: Win rate

If you're winning more than 1 BB per hour at live play, you can give yourself a big w00t!

Here, I'll do it for you: w00t!

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Seriously, though, such a win rate is certainly in the realm of sustainability (assuming you have a steady stream of faces, and a gillion other factors). You're at about 1.75BB per hour at 15/30 and 1.25BB per hour at 20/40; while very good, they're not outrageous.

That said, I think you'll find that you're running well, and that even is you are a winning player at these new levels, you're hourly rate will settle down a bit at some point, and that's not even counting the downswings you'll experience.

As others have already noted, you'll need to play a lot longer to truly know how you're doing. I also think I.Rowboat's post is a particularly fine one.

GL, and congrats on your results so far!
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  #14  
Old 12-04-2005, 04:33 PM
Abbaddabba Abbaddabba is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25
Default Re: Win rate

[ QUOTE ]
winning about $2,000 a week for about 1 1/2 months

[/ QUOTE ]

Typical hourly hand/rates at live games are 35 hands an hour.

You've been playing 40 hours a week for 5.5 weeks, or 220 hours.

220 hours, at 35 hands an hour is 7,700 hands. That is not a sufficient sample to offer you any reasonable level of certainty that your sample winrate is on par with your true winrate.

Your sample winrate, however, is $2,000/1400 = $1.40 a hand, or 3.5 big bets per 100 hands at a 20/40 table and for an hourly rate, roughly 1/3rd of that for 1.2 big bets an hour.

It's not absurdly high, but if you have to ask these kinds of questions, it's probably not sustainable for you given how you play right now.
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  #15  
Old 12-04-2005, 04:43 PM
golferbrent golferbrent is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Kansas, USA
Posts: 1
Default Re: Win rate

[ QUOTE ]
I played 3/6 and 6/12 for a year and a half and built my bankroll and have recently moved up to 15/30-20/40. I play almost exclusively live games at a casino. Since I moved up I have been winning about $2,000 a week for about 1 1/2 months playing an average of 40hrs a week sometimes more. Is it possible to keep this up or am I running unusually good? What is a good average win rate at this level?
Thanks
Kevin

[/ QUOTE ]

Kevin,

I will tell you this... If you can identify the things that you do better then the other players in the game then you are certainly moving in the right direction of being a better player. I think though that Jen Harman summed up the feeling about guaging a player's ability by saying...

"I can't tell how good a player is when they are running good, but I can certainly tell you whether a player is a good, great, or bad player when they are running bad" It is the decisions a player makes when they are running bad that more accurately identifies a good player. When things are going well, you will not see the mistakes that you may or may not make.

When you are running bad, those little decisions accumulate and will make the difference between breakeven weeks and losing weeks. Another thing you may want to consider is taking a roadtrip and playing somewhere else... to see how well you game stacks up against new competition.

GL on the road to success.
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