AQ: Domination with Redraws

naphand · #1 10-13-2005, 10:34 AM

I feel I should be more certain of these AQ spots, perhaps I am running bad.

TABLE: Fairly loose around the 30% seeing flop mark. Button here is reasonably solid post-flop, PF he is V$IP30/PFR10 over 50 hands. Not much to go on but so far he is NOT raising loosely (i.e. not a LAG), only calling loosely.

$5/$10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Naphand raises, 3 folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Naphand calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Naphand checks, Button bets, Naphand [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

My default strategy is to dump AQo UI post-flop to a 3-bet against most reasonably tight/correct 3-bettors. Here I could very well be horribly dominated BUT the board has likely not improved villains hand and offers me a lot of potential improvement on the Turn: I have backdoor flush, straight and probably live outs to the Q (barring AA/KK). Ace outs obviously tainted by AKo.

I am staring at the board - looks like a good spot to peel one. Anyone disagree?

Munga30 · #2 10-13-2005, 11:05 AM

I'm inclined to fold unless you can say this guy is aware enough to three bet an MP open raiser with 77/KJs/KQ. The 10% PFR doesn't really tell me that one way or another.

paperboyNC · #3 10-13-2005, 11:17 AM

I'm getting 8.4 to 1 (with probably more reverse-implied odds than implied odds). You are about 6.4 to 1 to get a pair on the turn.

I'd call here and check-raise a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn. I'd donk-bet an A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and check/call a Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

If the flop had a king (and you had only one overcard), you might fold this flop.

jskills · #4 10-13-2005, 11:18 AM

I think calling is fine here.

We're folding the turn unless a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A,Q, or J hits right?

ErrantNight · #5 10-13-2005, 11:19 AM

folding is fine. your outs are almost certainly tainted.

a peel wouldn't be awful, but you still can't put a raise in. if you feel villain will 3bet you lite, sure

naphand · #6 10-13-2005, 11:57 AM

My plan was to call and CR a Turn Q or J, just calling a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

The problem with CR the flush card is that it is just too obvious and I am still behind to most of his hands. Getting 3-bet OOP would really suck, and there is a good chance he will do that with the flush card - he is not putting me on a T or 9 (if he holds overs) and is aggressive enough to know that move.

paperboyNC · #7 10-13-2005, 12:34 PM

I think his 3-betting range may be wider than you think. He could be 3betting 77+, ATs+ AQo+

If he doesn't have a heart, he could even fold AK when a heart hits the turn.

W. Deranged · #8 10-13-2005, 12:58 PM

Peel!

You are right that usually it's best to dump AQ unimproved to a pre-flop three-bettor on the the flop, but here you've got a bunch going.

You should also consider that a fair amount of the time villain might check behind the turn and give you a free shot to improve.

The Nate Tha Great post that Hobbsman recently bumped was very useful in clarifying my thoughts on this situation. OOP, peeling in heads-up pots on the flop should probably be done quite liberally, because villain might check the turn (which will almost invariably increase our equity), and so forth.

I think I'm going to go back and bump that thread.

brettbrettr · #9 10-13-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
villain might check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

It helps to have more than a "might" but I agree.

naphand · #10 10-13-2005, 02:32 PM

Good old Nate - fondly remembered as the resident LAG in the HUSH forum.

I would appreciate seeing that post, if it does not appear here (posted in mid-limit?) perhaps you can let me know the subject and I can look it up myself.