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#11
10-30-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Just call. (DeathDonkey and jason_t and baronzeus and Surfbullet) [/ QUOTE ] FYP [/ QUOTE ] FYP Surf 
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#12
10-30-2005, 11:15 PM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Just call. (DeathDonkey and jason_t and baronzeus and Surfbullet)<font color="blue"> </font> AND CHOBO [/ QUOTE ] FYP [/ QUOTE ] FYP Surf [/ QUOTE ] FYP, sir.
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#13
10-31-2005, 12:14 AM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
I tend to raise/fold the river here against an unknown, I understand that against a TAG, raising here is likely bad, but I think on average an unknown Villain will bet here often enough w/two pair, without really thinking through that most of what you call/raise with here on this board has him beat. Do those saying call the river think that an unknown will always just check/call the river w/QT/KT/KQ/A5 etc? I've seen a weirdly played two-pair in this situation before, but maybe my default here is spewing.
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#14
10-31-2005, 12:15 AM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
Im sorry, why is everyone afraid of the gutshot getting there? Wouldn't this likely be some shitty 2 pair that you have crushed?
Unless Im seeing something incorrectly, Im raising without a second thought...
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#15
10-31-2005, 12:26 AM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
[ QUOTE ]
Im sorry, why is everyone afraid of the gutshot getting there? Wouldn't this likely be some shitty 2 pair that you have crushed? Unless Im seeing something incorrectly, Im raising without a second thought... [/ QUOTE ] its not really that easy. you are costing yourself money by raising this. here's why: a) just by sheer bayes theorem, its more likely that he had a pair + gutshot on the turn and hit a straight on the river than it is that he had a pair+gutshot on the turn and hit 2 pair on the river. b) raising and folding to a 3bet costs you more a little bit of value in two ways: one, he may fold 2 pair but he will never ever ever fold the nuts. two ,he will always 3bet with the nuts, and he may even 3bet without the nuts if he think theres a reasonable chance you are raise folding (although this is extremely unlikely). this means you gain slightly less than 2 bets when ahead and you lose slightly more than 2 bets when behind. so in general only point 1 is needed to make it a call instead of a raise, but point 2 is even more reason.
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#16
10-31-2005, 12:27 AM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
Its not the gutshot, its the 2pair
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#17
10-31-2005, 12:42 AM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
Nevermind, I just realized what I was looking at... I call at 5/10...
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#19
10-31-2005, 12:53 AM
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Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
[ QUOTE ]
just by sheer bayes theorem, its more likely that he had a pair + gutshot on the turn and hit a straight on the river than it is that he had a pair+gutshot on the turn and hit 2 pair on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Nice. This is a very astute point I don't recall ever seeing posted before.
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