#21
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
Check/call. You give up value from a T, but you gain value from hearts and you save money against a boat. You probably get the same from trips but sometimes he might get frisky and raise a bet with trips which you wont like calling.
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#22
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
check call. let him bluff
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#23
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
you don't think a set bets/raises anywhere before the river? [/ QUOTE ] Completely depends on read here. Would I, yes? Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold. |
#24
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
I think you have to call this. You only have to be right ~36% of the time for you to be correct. I could see a donk playing 9Ts, JJ, or a missed flush draw. But I'm going to go ahead and take a shot in the dark and guess specifics. Villain flips up A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and hero takes down a monster. This is where you all begin applauding. Just kidding, just a read/guess. Interesting hand though.
Later, -Ace |
#25
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely you're beat on this board here though unless he's mega donk. [/ QUOTE ] No matter what, this guy is a mega donk, right? If he's ahead he either limped UTG w/ T6 or 96, or he checked his set on a super draw heavy board. Obviously we can't be entirely comfortable w/ the river call, but I can't see folding. I'm very interested to see results. |
#26
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
At the time, I felt like he had a piece of the board and not hearts, so I went for a value bet.
When he raised, I said "oops." But getting almost 3:1 on my call, I felt I coulden't let it go. He shows 99 and MHING. I felt like a donk and figured that the check/call would be the standard 2+2 line and that I messed up, but I guess it's pretty close considering the responses. Thanks for the comments everyone. |
#27
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold. [/ QUOTE ] Isn't this completely backwards? A donk is more likely to have checked the set, or to have limped T6 or 96 UTG. A crafty player seems more likely to bluff his busted flush when he senses weakness. Care to explain your logic? I guess I'm thinking c/c either way. |
#28
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
When he raises you on the river you are very rarely ahead. Unless he's just dumb, what hand could he have here? Noone bluffs at you here, the question is if he could have any worse hand that he thinks is good. I can't think of any. I mean your pot odds are goot but no so phenominal that you can't turn them down.
Check/call is a lot better for a the reasons stated. A check call loses the least to a sloplayed monster and wins the most from a missed draw. There aren't many hands he could have here that you need to value bet against. Maybe AT or whatever, but who knows maybe AT will bet for value himself. Even if he wont, the value you lose to AT is much less than the value you gain from other hands. Everett |
#29
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
A
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#30
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
A [/ QUOTE ] |
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