Live 6/12 hand, bottom set on connected board

[Tom1975]

Forgive me is this is boring, I'm just curious if anyone does anything different. It's an 8 handed live 6/12 table, really fishy, only other decent player is a TAG who is villian in this hand. Villian is in EP, Hero in CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop:
1 folds, Villain raises, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, Villain calls

Flop (7.5 sb): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain bets, Hero raises, Villian raises, Hero raises, Villian calls (he could have still raised, since there's no cap heads-up)

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian bets, Hero Calls

River: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian bets, Hero Calls

Standard???

Villain's got the world's worst AA/KK, QQ for the OESD or he hit a set. He raises early position, so unless he has exactly KQ s (which probably would check to you on the turn then raise) he doesn't have the straight.

I don't know. I think I would have raised the turn. Why is he betting out here after just calling your final flop raise? Because he's trying to protect a hand. While you could certainly be behind TT and JJ (and that seems rather likely), AA-QQ are viable candidates too. Raise the turn. I'm thinking seriously of folding if he 3-bets; I just don't see him having the made straight ever, if he's really a decent TAG. If he's super aggressive, though, or if you don't have that many hands on him, I think I'm calling the turn reraise and making a crying call on the river.

[Edit]
This is a live game. I don't see too many live players raising EP with TT or JJ, even supposed TAGS; they want their set before they put money in. I think we have the best hand. Put more money in the pot and say nh if he flips over a set.

in my opinion looks like he has a hand worred about you having an OESD, I think he just called hoping that the turn would be a safe card that didnt fill a straight. In my opinion he has TP or T2P, or any overpair as above posted.

I imagine you have the best hand, turn raise is good.

[TheHammer24]

[ QUOTE ]

[Edit]
This is a live game. I don't see too many live players raising EP with TT or JJ, even supposed TAGS; they want their set before they put money in. I think we have the best hand. Put more money in the pot and say nh if he flips over a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes little sense.

As for OP, I like it, Villian raises preflop and goes crazy on the flop with TT, JJ, 3 combos, 99, 1 combo, AA, KK, QQ, 6 combos, KQ, 10 combos. 18 v 16 says your ahead, but after he donks the turn I think you need to call down. You're WA/WB and you don't want to get into another raising war. You want to showdown your hand, and calling down is the best way to do this.

EDIT: I guess AJ is possible too. I still like calling down.

Villain can't have 99. I still maintain KQ is extremely unlikely as an early position raise. And if you're gonna give him that, don't you have to include JT s as well? Because I see KQ raised early in live games just about as often as JT, which is to say, never. Perhaps a TAG is better at Tom's 6/12 game than in the 4/8 games I play at, but imho even the supposed "TAGs" play scared with stuff like KQ, AQ and TT-JJ preflop. Online I call down. In this live game I put in the turn raise and hope for the best.

[The Goober]

Some more reads would help. How does villian see you? Does he think you are a loose/passive fish, or does he respect your play?

With nothing else to go on, I say raise the turn. So far the most strength villian has shown is a 3-bet on the flop, which lots of TAGs will do with AA-QQ here (especially QQ with the OESD). Even a super-passive player would go for the turn CR here with the made straight, since you've done nothing but bet and raise at every oportunity.

If you get 3-bet on the turn, I'd call down. You have to call the 3-bet because you could be drawing very live against a made straight. On the river, I just couldn't see folding a set getting almost 15:1 (at least, not without a stronger read than you've indicated here).

(oh, and include pot sizes on the turn and river, pls...)

[hobbsmann]

The thing about this hand that interests me is that the way the preflop and flop action went down I really feel like you are losing a fair amount of the time here. A TAG that raises in EP is going to cap AA/KK and probably QQ everytime here and so I think we can discount the amount of times he will hold these on the flop. This leaves a probable hand range (that plays the flop like this) as KQ/TT/JJ/QQ and maybe AA/KK. Thus since your hand needs to be shown down I think your line is good.

I played a live hand like this recently where I was almost certain my bottom set was bet by a higher set, but you have to showdown regardless because God kills a kitten eveytime somebody folds a set heads up.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing about this hand that interests me is that the way the preflop and flop action went down I really feel like you are losing a fair amount of the time here. A TAG that raises in EP is going to cap AA/KK and probably QQ everytime here and so I think we can discount the amount of times he will hold these on the flop. This leaves a probable hand range (that plays the flop like this) as KQ/TT/JJ/QQ and maybe AA/KK. Thus since your hand needs to be shown down I think your line is good.

I played a live hand like this recently where I was almost certain my bottom set was bet by a higher set, but you have to showdown regardless because God kills a kitten eveytime somebody folds a set heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your thoughts. I discounted his AA/KK/QQ possibilites by half for this reason, I also added AJ to his range.

Hands we're ahead of:

AA(3) KK(3) QQ(3) AJ(12) = 21

Hands we're behind:

TT(3) JJ(3) KQ(16) = 22

When you think about the fact if we're behind we're drawing pretty slim, and when we're ahead he's usually drawing fairly live, I start getting passive after villain's flop 3 bet.