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  #21  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:12 AM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

When we raise the turn, the pot will be about 30 SB if you assume that the manaic calls and the CO folds. If getting that AK to fold nets us 7% more equity, then the raise buys us 30*.07 = 2.1 SB of the pot. Of course he also loses on every bet that goes in, so by coldcalling he is losing ~2.7 SB on that street should he have 8% equity. So he would be making a bigger mistake by coldcalling then folding (though it might not benefit us).

Let's say that you are playing a hand where you have 40% equity, Player A has 30% equity and Player B has 30% equity. If you bet, Player B will always fold and the pot is right now 9 BB (before you either check or bet 1 BB). Is he making a good fold? Are you making a good bet?

We all know that he is making a bad fold, but you may or may not be making a good bet. If you have 70% equity and player A has 30% after he folds, then the bet was good. If you still have 40% and player A has 60%, then the bet sucks. Just because the dude with AK has 8% equity doesn't mean that it all goes to our aces when he folds. So it is tough to evaluate the EV of knocking him out of this pot. Him coldcalling could very well benefit us more (and the math on it is very close). Assume we have 50% equity if he coldcalls.

Pot Equity from a cold call = 34 sb*.5 - 4 = 13 sb
EV fold = 30 sb*.57 - 17 sb = + 0.1 sb

So in that case, it really doesn't matter if he calls or folds. I'll make more comments about your post in bit, but there a lot of points in your reply that need to be addressed.

Edited
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  #22  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:27 AM
Yerma Yerma is offline
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

[ QUOTE ]

Let's say that you are playing a hand where you have 40% equity, Player A has 30% equity and Player B has 30% equity. If you bet, Player B will always fold and the pot is right now 9 BB (before you either check or bet 1 BB). Is he making a good fold? Are you making a good bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

The majority of the equity in knocking someone out in a hand like this is going to go to the current best made hand. Odds are, that's going to be the AA. If someone flopped a set and blanks keep falling, this is going to be an expensive hand...so be it.
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  #23  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:47 AM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

And if he has a weak hand, you're still probably better knocking him out on the turn or forcing him to make a big, bad call. And if he has (or turns) a strong hand, the turn card may come bad and slow you down all by itself, and you'll be happy you didn't raise the flop.

This is fatal thinking in a hand like this. This isn't like having

5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flop.

-or-

6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flop.

We know what the bad cards are in the above hands. We have no idea what the bad cards are in the AA hand (though we have an idea of what is good). Assume a king comes off on 4th street. Is that good or bad? Stove says it is bad, but not terrible. How about a queen? Stove is indifferent to that card eventhough it looks pretty scary. A nine is about the same as a queen according to PokerStove. The 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] puts us in the same place as the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

There are going to be a decent # of cards that we don't want to see (any K/J/9 or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) and still more below average cards ([img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/Q/9/8). The problem is that we can't seperate the bad cards from the scary ones. It is much better to wait when you have a idea of what really kills your equity. In this hand we know that our equity is huge on the flop, and that we are almost always boss. Worrying that we might be behind is terrible reason to not step on the gas pedal. Good for him if he flopped three queens this time. The vast majority of the time he will have a hand that is ready to payoff all bets.
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  #24  
Old 12-24-2005, 11:29 AM
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

Great discussion guys! I'm still reading and rereading the above......maybe
someday in the heat of the battle I can make some of these plays. Most
of the time, I just try to make the straight up value play with no trickery.

I think that on the river, I should have made up my mind to either call it
through or check-fold before it hit......so I threw away two big bets at
the very least.

The CO had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]! He won with a straight.
This hand has been haunting me.....I thought, How could he cap with these
cards???? But, now I think that what he was doing was waiting for his
opportunity for the maniac. The maniac 3-bet, he didn't respect the
maniacs raising standards, he hadn't seen much from me....so he saw his chance and went for it. Good play on his part........

Jim

PS: What do you guys do when there is a maniac like this on your left?????
moose47 said that he would never leave a table like this......I'm thinking
that I should only bet when I WANT it to be raised behind me? So basically
I would play the SSHE recommendations for what to do when confronted with
a raise.
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  #25  
Old 12-24-2005, 12:45 PM
shant shant is offline
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

It would be better to have a seat on the maniac's left, but I wouldn't leave the table. It's better to play at a table with a maniac, just wait for an oppurtunity to switch seats.
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  #26  
Old 12-24-2005, 12:49 PM
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

When there is a maniac behind me who is going to raise 90% of the hands I tend to tighten up a little and not play the more speculative hands on the SSHE chart. When I get a hand that has a draw on the flop, a hand that I would usually raise to protect I tend to get passive and let the maniac do the raising since you can't protect against him and usually the rest of the table won't go away to another raise. If the draw hits or I have a monster that hits the flop I will usually c/r the maniac then push the hand hard. Generally I get more patient and hope I'm the one who catches a hand against him. The second or third time he sucks out against my monsters is about all I can stand before finding a better table.
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  #27  
Old 12-24-2005, 02:14 PM
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

[ QUOTE ]

The problem is you haven't seen a single hand this guy has played. When there is a huge amount of money at stake and I'm dealing with an unknown, I'm going to treat him like he's Ed Miller.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know what limits you play, but if they're from .25/.50 to 2/4 you must be a losing player.
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