did i misplay this AA?

authority11 · #1 03-25-2005, 09:27 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter

MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($198)
CO ($182.03)
Button ($136.8)
SB ($234.52)
BB ($173.22)
UTG ($114)
Hero ($520.45)
MP1 ($211)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, CO calls $8, Button calls $8, 1 fold, BB calls $6, UTG folds.

Flop: ($37) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, CO raises to $174.03 (All-In), Button folds, BB folds, Hero ???.

Should I have made it 5x BB to preflop? What about the flop bet? What hand do you think he had? I hadn't seen much out of the ordinary in his betting style until this. Seemed pretty average all around. Results in a bit.

Finite_Risk · #2 03-25-2005, 09:37 AM

Set or KK/QQ/JJ? If I had KK behind you preflop I likely would have reraised given the number of folks already in the pot and my desire to get an ace to fold.

I would likely just call with JJ/QQ/TT...I wouldn't push this soon on the flop if I hit trip 10's, so I'd put him on QQ/JJ and call

BoxTree · #3 03-25-2005, 09:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Set or KK/QQ/JJ? If I had KK behind you preflop I likely would have reraised given the number of folks already in the pot and my desire to get an ace to fold.

I would likely just call with JJ/QQ/TT...I wouldn't push this soon on the flop if I hit trip 10's, so I'd put him on QQ/JJ and call

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like all of this reasoning. But I'm new to SSNL, so don't listen to me (yet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SirFWALGMan · #4 03-25-2005, 09:45 AM

I am new to this too so do not take my advice, but I am wondering why you would risk your whole stack on TP? I think he easily could have had TT and not wanted to draw it out and let you catch your A/K/Q, or straight even. Also he could be wanting to draw a call. You have invested like twenty buck so far, do you want to lose 10x that much on a guess that he has QQ/JJ and would not go all in with trips? I think folding here and waiting for a better chance is good. I do not play the limits you do so maybe I am wrong but I think there are better places to get your whole stack in.

pho75 · #5 03-25-2005, 12:00 PM

It seems like the only hand that would fit both his preflop and flop actions would be 98s. I think that would be his MOST likely hand. He could also have hands like: TT, 55, or 77. The set though doesn't really fit his action on the flop does it? There are no obvious draws that you could have, no reason to push you out of the pot.

QQ could make sense I guess. He chose not to reraise preflop and is now trying to get you to laydown your bigger pair by representing a set.

A total bluff makes some sense too. He called with something like AK or 66 and is making his "big play".

K's are also possible but not very likely.

Lets do the math

Code:<hr /><pre>
Hand Probability of Probability of Total
having that hand winning with that probablity
hand of winning
---------------------------------------------------------
98s 30% x 64% = 19%
TT,55,77 40% x 9% = 4%
QQ 10% x 92% = 9%
KK 10% x 92% = 9%
AK 5% x 94% = 5%
other PP 5% x 92% = 5%
------------------------------------------------------
Probability of winning 51%
</pre><hr />

Even though I think 98s makes more sense I gave the set a higher probablity because there are so many more ways to make it. 18 for the set vs. 4 ways to make 98s.

If you think these %'s look reasonable then the call is a good one. It's 50/50 to win and you are getting 3-2 on your money.

To make the call borderline you would have to put the chance of a set at 70% which seems very high to me.