getting equity right

If we take a OESD on the flop as an example, we have a 31.5 % of hitting our hand by the river. So if there are more than 3 people in the pot we should be raising to get as much money in as possible. One thing I need to clarify is does the 3 people include me or is it 3 people excluding me?

Lets say we capped the flop on the button with 4 people in the pot and it now gets checked to us on the turn. Now we only have a 17.4% chance of making our hand, we would need 6 people to call to have the equity advantage. So now with only 4 others in the pot and say we know that they will call (and have better hands than us at the moment), does this mean we must take the free card?

It has to be three people not including you. Your theoretical profit for each bet you make (assuming everyone calls and the conditions are correct) is ((4*0.315)-1)= +0.26 Bet. By the "conditions" being correct I mean your OESD should be to the nuts, you should be reasonably sure there is no flush draw out, and the board should probably not be paired. This doesn't have to be exact though due to implied odds when you make your straight on the turn (redraws somewhat complicate this) and the chances your hand will win when you make something other than a straight. There is also a complication due to reverse implied odds when you don't hit the turn and don't get the odds to call due to, say, being trapped behind or between two raisers on the turn.

On the flop a lot depends on what card hit the turn and what your chances of winning the pot are by betting out. If it is a blank then you would probably be correct to check it through. If you have say KQ and the flop was say a mixed suit J T 3 and the turn was a K. The situation is quite a bit different and you might try to win it right there with a bet depending on what you think your opponents have and what they might be drawing to.

I am a fairly new poker player so there could be an error or two in what I have written above, but I am sure someone will let us know if there is. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jaxUp]

This is on the money.

ps. I will destroy b-set and cold_cash tonight.

[jakbse]

Even though we don't have enough pot equity to bet/raise the turn a semi bluff can be profitable. It's the combination of the chance that your opponents fold and that you make the best hand on the river that can make a bet profitable.

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It has to be three people not including you.

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thanks for the reply. Just to confirm, say our equity is exactly 33 1/3% and there are 2 others in the hand, then our EV is exactly neutral? Does implied odds make make it slightly +EV

[jaxUp]

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It has to be three people not including you.

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thanks for the reply. Just to confirm, say our equity is exactly 33 1/3% and there are 2 others in the hand, then our EV is exactly neutral? Does implied odds make make it slightly +EV

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implied odds would make it +EV, as would fold equity. Reverse implied odds could make it -EV

therefore with with only 2 others in the hand, one could argue that betting is the best thing to do cos even if we get raised, our EV is still not going negative.

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This is on the money.

ps. I will destroy b-set and cold_cash tonight.

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Oh, but I will destroy you all.

[jaxUp]

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therefore with with only 2 others in the hand, one could argue that betting is the best thing to do cos even if we get raised, our EV is still not going negative.

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yeah, as long as we don't have reverse-implied odds.