6K Hands, Not where I want to be.

GooperMC · #1 04-30-2005, 07:47 PM

I just logged my 6K limit hand and my results are not quite what I was hoping for. Here are my numbers

Hands: 6,119
VP$IP: 18.97
W$SF: 19.72
WtSD: 27.13
W$SD: 61.73

BB/100: .5
Won HI: 3.71
Won LO: 1.83
Scoop: 2.68

PRF: 2.6
Flop Agg: .72
Turn Agg: 1.18
River Agg: 1.9

These numbers are very scary to me, with such a low WtSD and W$SF I am surprised that I am positive at all. I am seeing about 1 in 3 flops and winning 1 in 5 hands when I see a flop. That means on average I am winning 1 in 15 hands which is not going to haul in the big money in a split pot game.

These numbers also confirm what I feel when I am playing: I just don't win enough hands. I feel like I play very tight pre-flop and when I do see a flop I just don’t make enough hands to be profitable.

I know that 6K hands is not enough to form a sample however W$SF is something I have watched closely and there doesn’t seem to be much variance in it. 60% of my 100+ hand sessions have a VP$IP between 18 and 22 and my VP$IP has held steady around 20 since about the 1500 hand mark.

Compare to my 2500 hands stats
[ QUOTE ]

Hands: 2,647
VP$IP: 20.28
W$SF: 19.63
WTSD: 27.82

[/ QUOTE ]
Look similar?

At this point I am fairly sure that there is a gaping leak in my game however I have been reviewing my sessions and can’t seem to find it. Any suggestions?

gergery · #2 04-30-2005, 08:28 PM

Was just going thru my sorting system for O8 players.

I had a look at the stats of all the good players I respect in my games, the ones who are consistent winners.

VPIP concentrated around 22-28%
PFR concentrated 4-8%
W$SD 67-78%

I can't easily pull it but from looking at #s before, I'd say
W$SF >34%
Flop agro much higher >1.2
Turn agro higher > 1.4
River agro similar >1.6

I'd guess you are not winning enough pots by getting other to fold earlier in the hand, and not calling enough at end.

And again, 6k hands is absolutely meaningless, so this is only a starting point for stuff to think about and may well be totally off for you personally.

GooperMC · #3 05-01-2005, 02:08 PM

gergery, thanks for the reply however I'll bet that the games you are mining are very different then the games I am playing.

I have been playing a mix of .5/1 and 1/2 and at those levels there are usually 6-7 people seeing every flop. With large family pots W$SF, W$SD, and aggression will all go down. W$SF because it takes large hands to win, W$SD because large pots will make crying calls more correct, and aggression because the pots are too large to push anyone out of the hand that either has you beat or a draw to beat you.

For the .5/1 level I have some players that are winning consistently with a PFR of 1, and agg below me across the board, yet they are still winning more hands then I am.

Thanks for the suggestion, any other ideas?

GooperMC · #4 05-01-2005, 05:09 PM

Here is an example of what I am talking about. .5/1 players will not fold ANYTHING.

Party Poker (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Buttons calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Buttons calls, SB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Final Pot:

Hero has [ Ah, Jc, Qd, 3h ]
Button has [ 5c, 4d, 6d, As ] a straight, four to eight.
SB has [ Jh, 4s, 9d, Ad ] a pair of fours.

gergery · #5 05-01-2005, 05:37 PM

It's true I'm basing my comments primarily on data from higher levels. But due to bankroll issues I'd dropped back to .5-1 and played 1k hands, and had 1.5k hands at 2-4 within the last 2 months as I worked my way back up. So I am familiar with the play there.

i agree the numbers will be lower (except for aggression -- this should still be pretty high as you value bet hands you have greater than average equity in), but not that much lower. It would be a relatively simple thing however to not speculate on what the right number is but simply export and calculate it so you'll know. PM me if you'd like to see my spreadsheet on this.

-Greg

Ironman · #6 05-02-2005, 08:34 AM

Gooper,

Last night at a .5/1 table there was a guy with a VPIP over 90% and a W$SD of more than 60%.

Doing quite well....think his name was Lonewolf or something like that.

So now I don't judge a player without taking both numbers into consideration. I'm starting to think that the W$SD number is more important (I think that's what Geoff was trying to say last week) rather than the VPIP numbers.

When I look at the numbers, I'm looking for extremes. Something that gives a predictability that I can take advantage of (either very high numbers or very low).

Good luck.