Same $60 - a few hands later

(Notice Hero's wounded stack [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

Hero (t1600)
Button (t1040)
SB (t4560)
BB (t865)
UTG (t5435)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">UTG folds</font>, Hero?


I decided to run this throuh Pokerstove to see if it looks like +eV to push here. Basically I considerd the 3 villains' calling range to be 99+, some aces, high broadway:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6660 % 31.43% 02.23% { Ah5s }
Hand 2: 66.3340 % 64.10% 02.23% { 99+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }

So we're a 2-1 dog to any callers. These constitue 10% of possible random hands. So you can estimate each villain as 10% likely to call. There are some small odds of more than one caller, and BB's range is probably broader. But for simplicty, let's just say those two factors cancel each other out.

Accrding to my caclulations, pushing here is +t91 eV:

if button calls: (0.033*1040 - 0.067*1040)
if SB calls: +(0.033*1600 - 0.067*1600)
if BB calls: +(0.033*865 - 0.067*865+0)
if no one calls: +(.7*300)

Questions:
1) Did I do the math right?
2) Do the calling ranges seem about right?
3) If so does this mean an automatic push in this situation? Are there any other considerations besides eV?
4) How do you factor in bubble/ITM considerations? Do I need another tool for that?

Pokerstove is fun [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[durron597]

I used to push this hand all the time. It was also my biggest leak for a long time. Fold, your stack is too big to push with these blinds.

So what does +eV actually mean then?

i'm interested in this... he's got 8BB with Axo that's +EV... why do you consider this a leak?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm interested in this... he's got 8BB with Axo that's +EV... why do you consider this a leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it really? The BB is going to be looking for a hand to get his stack in with, he's gonna have a pretty wide call range... let's call it 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs.

The SB has plenty of chips but probably doesn't want a confrotantion without a pretty strong hand... but he knows he has plenty of chips so he's not afraid of really calling you either. Let's call it 66+,A6o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+.

The button is also interested in calling you but he can wait a few hands to be first in. So he probably has the tightest range of all, let's say 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+.

With these three ranges, you lose 0.1% of the prize pool on average. A clear fold.

Just for comparison, KTs makes you 0.1% of the prize pool on average with these call ranges.

Yeah, I'm real curious to find out as well. I'm really trying to understand good pushbotting. But if +eV isn't all there is to consider, I'd like to know what else I should be looking at.

I never understood why you guys(or SnGPT) differeniate between the suited and unsuited cards. Is villian(s) really calling with KJs but folding KJo?

[kevkev60614]

Your math is right, but you are missing a tool. Your conclusion is right (given the assumptions) but it's coincidence.

One of the most important keys to success in a SnG is the difference between cEV (chip expected value) and $EV (your expected portion of the prize pool). $EV should be the most important consideration in almost every decision you make. Often you'll make a move that is +cEV and -$EV. This is not one of those cases.

http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html

If you plug in all of the players' stack sizes for each scenario you outlined, you can see the effect of your action on your % of the prize pool.

You'll come out with something like this:
=.7*.1824+.067*.0599+.033*.2644+.067*0+.033*.2613+ .067*.0768+.033*.2367=.1620
Assuming instead that it's folded around to the BB, your $EV is .1567
Since it's higher if you push, you're correct here.

So that's the methodology. I think Durron had a problem with your assumptions. I do, too.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I'm real curious to find out as well. I'm really trying to understand good pushbotting. But if +eV isn't all there is to consider, I'd like to know what else I should be looking at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your call ranges are wrong. You think ANY of the players behind you are folding 77? Even 66 is pushing it, but I would believe it, same for 55.

Ok cool. So my calling ranges are off and I need another tool. Those were two of my questions. So I'll use Durron's calling ranges with ICM (although Durron you seem to have SB tighter on pocket pairs, but looser on high hands than the button, so that's a little confusing).

Here are the calcs:

Button: (calls 12.2% of the time - *.315=.038, *.684=.083 - so against the SB I win 3.8% of the time, lose 8.3 % of the time, don't face him the rest)
Hand 1: 31.5860 % 28.93% 02.66% { Ah5d }
Hand 2: 68.4140 % 65.76% 02.66% { 44+, A7s+, KJs+, A9o+ }

SB (calls 16.7% of the time - *.357=.060, *.642=.107):
Hand 1: 35.7634 % 29.89% 05.87% { Ah5d }
Hand 2: 64.2366 % 58.37% 05.87% { 66+, A2s+, KTs+, A6o+, KQo }

BB (calls 30.6% of the time - *.452=.138, *.549=.168) :
Hand 1: 45.0725 % 39.20% 05.88% { Ah5d }
Hand 2: 54.9275 % 49.05% 05.88% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q9s+, JTs, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+ }

And 41.5% of the time I take down the blinds uncontested. Well that's a big change. Ok so lets plug it in using tournament stake using ICM:

I win the blinds: 0.1824
I beat the button: 0.2644
I lose to the button: 0.0599
I beat the SB: 0.2613
I lose to the SB: 0
I beat the BB: 0.2367
I lose to the BB: 0.0768

So the number if I make this play is: 0.15196 $EV
(0.038*0.2644+0.083*0.0599)+(0.06*0.2613+0.107*0)+ (0.138*0.2367+0.168*0.0768)+(0.415*0.1824)

And the number if I just fold (assuming it's folded to the BB, which is the lowest it would be) is: 0.1567 $EV

Interesting, pretty close, but definitely looks like a fold, assuming Durron's ranges are correct.

Anyone know of a program that can do everything above on one shot? IE take hole cards, calling ranges, stack sizes, touney payout, and spit out the push/fold $EV #s? That would be pretty cool.