Theorem of poker

[Monty Cantsin]

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The reason there is disagreement is not because your explanation is wrong, but rather, because it is incomplete.


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In my case the disagreement is because I think his explanation is wrong. Anybody who says "flopping any set against this many loose players is costly" is simply, and profoundly, mistaken.

/mc

[meep_42]

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If you fold Aces pre-flop under any circumstances you are absolutely mad.

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Now, now, let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater. There are certainly times where folding AA pre-flop could be an acceptable play. (In tournament play -- otherwise, yes, you'd be crazy)

-d

[Azrael_AOD]

To paraphrase Bobby Baldwin from his Limit Hold-Em section in Super System "Be prepared to lose with your pocket Aces about half the time". Your Aces have a massive advantage preflop against all opponents; whether or not the entire frickin table sees the flop is irrelevant. AA makes it's money preflop and on the flop. That's where it's advantage lies. On the turn and river you have much less of an advantage against drawing hands, but keep in mind that Aces can and will improve, and when they do your opponents are in serious trouble. When you flop top set you are a massive favourite over everyone. Also, most small-stakes hold-em pots are large anyway, even preflop, so everyone has correct (or almost correct odds) to stay in for their crappy draws; you just have to protect your hand by making smart bets/raises. Besides, even if they didn't have correct odds some retards would still draw to any straight or flush- leaving you in excellent position to punish their mistakes. I think the only secret to playing AA is to know how to get away from them. The wins will come (and they will be pretty big wins if you're getting 5-6 way action), the only thing that remains is to control your losses. I myself have a lot of trouble folding them even when I'm about 80% sure I'm beat.

Any comments? Am I talking sense or just talking outta my A!#?

[pudley4]

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If I knew how I would. I suppose I could screen capture and post a jpeg image of the TTH profiles I made and the results page. Im not that inclined though. If you have TTH you can run the same tests I did by simply stacking the deck. I made 4 profiles that would check or call any bets or raises to the showdown and 4 that would bet or raise to the showdown. I gave seat 10 aces and the last seat Ax suited.

I then did another test but I stacked a few more hands that I think would be likely in this field. 8 10 suited, 5 7 suited, K Q , pocket 3s and an AJ

last test I used standard profiles but stacked all the hands with likely cards for this situation.

The field collectivly beat the crud out of the aces.

And Im going to make it VERY clear so as to not get berrated here. THIS IS A FIXED SITUATION. This is NOT a suggestion that aces are losers over time in a multi way pot. Just that I was able to make them cost money instead of make money in a FIXED test to represent a FIXED situation I was curious about.

And in fairness, one test did turn a positive value but it was so small and the swings were so large it only suggested a break even proposition.


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With 4 opponents who call down with anything, and 4 more opponents who bet/raise to the river, there is no way a decent player could not make an obscene amount of money playing AA.

Your sim is faulty. Period.

(If you are talking about one specific set of specific hands, then the sim is worthless, because the probability of you coming up against those specific hands in that specific situation is so small as to be insignificant.)

[pokerjo22]

I completely agree, and would go even further - although you'll make more money by doing so, I don't even think its necessary to learn how to get away from them.

[jayrutz2]

I ran a simulation a month ago on a hand where I had pocket AA against 6 callers capped preflop. BTW, they all showed down my turn raises, and the pot was HUGE. I got rivered for main and side. But pre-flop I was a 54% favorite. (Callers had AK, KJ AQ, K flopped and I got hit by a J on the river, lame suckout.) Point is, I'll play this hand ANYTIME!!!!

K

[Tommy Angelo]

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84o.

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Hey now. It was 85o. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[carlo]

Pleeeeasssse understand. I was making a joke and I'm sure Tommy understands. His articles are hilarious -go to Advertising and click onto the Tommy Angelo Webpage and especially read"The Worst Play Ever". All you need to know about Aces will be laid out in grand style.

Good Luck and Thank You Tommy!

regards,
carlo

[purnell]

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I currently have the best hand but I am not so sure I am the 'Favorite' to win there against 7 or more players with 2 cards to come, however. An open ended straight with a flush possability would be a 2 to 1 favorite over that hand wouldnt it?

Holding up 35% of the time is losing 65% of the time.. isnt it?

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Lets say I am holding a lottery with nine other entrants. Each entrant has a 7.2% chance of winning the prize, which is ten times the cost of a ticket. I am offering you a special ticket: if no one else hits the number, you win, giving you a 35% chance of winning. Will you buy this special ticket for the same price as everyone else?

[jayrutz2]

Yeah most likely unlucky. I literally got pocket AAs busted 3 time, pocket KK x 2, QQ and JJ all once in one hour all with leads after the turn in UB 1/2 6 handed. I was pushing all pots and average was prob 25 BBs with me have 4-5BBs in. I got busted out everytime. But hey, think about it, even if I hit 2 of those pots out of 7 I'm up 15bbS in one hour.

Bad luck sucks, but I wish i could sit at that table every session!!!!

K