Question for experienced players

Random678 · #1 06-08-2005, 08:51 AM

I would like to now, after how many hands (online) of winning play, you can say to yourself with cnfidence, that you indeed are a winning plyer and that this is not just a good run. Also, how many hands of winning play do you need, to see what is your truely win rate per hand. Of course, this question is for players who had playe over couple of 100k hands online. Thank you very much...

LINES · #2 06-08-2005, 10:24 AM

When you have a cigar in one hand, a bottle of crystal in the other, naked women running around pressing the buttons for you on the computer, and fetching you food. Then, and ONLY then, can you consider yourself a winning player.

k_squared · #3 06-08-2005, 02:16 PM

You know you are a winning player when you can look at your game and say that you played at a level that was better than that of your opponents. It isn't about winning money (although if you are right and truly a winning player you will eventually win) but rather about making decisions that gave you the best chance to win money. That is hard to evaluate, but I think you can know on a given day whether or not you 'beat' the game and were better than your opponents, or whether you got out played, or were on tilt. Stop looking for a magical way to know if you are a winner... being focused on making sure you are a winner is putting your focus on the wrong thing. Make good decisions and keep learning and eventually you will win.

-K_squared

AaronBrown · #4 06-08-2005, 03:01 PM

First of all, "winning" player means for the type of play you do. Everyone is a winner for some games, few of us are winners in all games. Moreover, even successful players have runs of better and worse play, they're constantly adjusting. So a winning player can hit a long losing slide, and a losing player can hit by luck on a good strategy for a while.

As a very general rule of thumb for limit play, controlled players have a standard deviation per hand roughly 100 times their win rate. That means a losing player is going to be ahead after 10,000 hands about 16% of the time. He will be ahead after 40,000 hands only about 5% of the time. So if you play 40,000 hands at a significant net profit, you can be pretty confident that it's not all luck.

If you are a wild player, or you constantly change strategy, the above does not apply.

bernie · #5 06-08-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You know you are a winning player when you can look at your game and say that you played at a level that was better than that of your opponents. It isn't about winning money (although if you are right and truly a winning player you will eventually win) but rather about making decisions that gave you the best chance to win money. That is hard to evaluate, but I think you can know on a given day whether or not you 'beat' the game and were better than your opponents, or whether you got out played, or were on tilt. Stop looking for a magical way to know if you are a winner... being focused on making sure you are a winner is putting your focus on the wrong thing. Make good decisions and keep learning and eventually you will win.

-K_squared

[/ QUOTE ]