Stupid chasing or good agressive play?

flyangler · #1 06-10-2005, 05:00 PM

PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.60 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.80 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, MP1 calls.

I am trying to loosen up in late position more, and K6s seemed a decent enough hand to call with (Sklanky says it is), when BB raised preflop, I am still trying to stay loose so I called.

On the flop I had the OESD and a BDFD + the over card. My re-raise here was as much for info from the BB as anything and when he 3-bet, I decided he must have a big pair or AK.

On the turn, I am feeling pretty good that I can draw at least one of the cards I need. 18 outs here- is that correct? (Including the overcard). If I am right and he has JJ or QQ I felt that there is more than enough money in the pot to "chase" here. Obviously if he has AA or AK then my K outs don't matter but even without the overcard there are 15 outs. So I am trying to make him pay for being too cocky with that big pair I put him on by capping.

Is this good agressive play or stupid chasing with an obviously strong villain's hand?

The final pot was more than 20 BB, I'll post the results after a little bit.

Thanks for your thoughts.

kai · #2 06-10-2005, 05:19 PM

I like the way you played it, you had a big edge and you pushed it correctly. The only thing that I will say is that you can not count the kings as full outs, so you have maybe 16.5 or so outs. But I still play it the same.

Weatherhead03 · #3 06-10-2005, 05:26 PM

I like the way you played..although PF call is a little loose for me but that is just me. After that you have many outs although I wouldnt count your K's as even an out at all personally. I would put him on AA or KK or AK therefore if you hit a K you are dead. I like the way you pushed your edge with that hand.

cgwahl · #4 06-10-2005, 05:27 PM

I would have capped the flop and called his reraise bet. This guy really likes his hand.

And you won't know if yours is any good until the river.

topspin · #5 06-10-2005, 05:29 PM

Cap the flop. You have equity to do so for value, plus you may buy a free turn card.

The turn is bad. Your equity is just a tad over 25% here (I think you have to discount your K outs -- with BB's relentless betting, I think there's a good chance he has JJ here, and even if he only has AA/KK a river K still doesn't save you). Your raise and his subsequent 3-bet narrows the field enough that your raise was no longer for value. Just calling also puts you in the perfect position to trap the field for 2 bets when he leads the river if you hit one of your draws.

EDIT: [i]why K outs likely aren't good

milesdyson · #6 06-10-2005, 05:31 PM

Yeah, why is everyone else agreeing with the turn action?

Redd · #7 06-10-2005, 05:34 PM

Preflop seems fine to me, I'd limp this 100% of the time.

Flop I like, but not for the reasons you mention:
[ QUOTE ]
My re-raise here was as much for info from the BB as anything and when he 3-bet, I decided he must have a big pair or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising for info here is pretty absurd. It's very overused at the best of times, but here you already know that you're behind, and you know that you'll almost certainly be ahead if you hit. So there isn't really any more information you can get or use.
I would still raise, however, for 2 reasons:
1) You have a strong draw and a strong backdoor, so your equity is large enough to raise against 3 people for value.
2) You might buy yourself a free card on the turn.

Turn play is close. Pumping draws on the turn is rare because usually there's not enough people to warrant any value. If there's ever a time to do it, it's now, I suppose; I'd put you at about 2:1 to come in by the river. You'd basically need all 3 callers in for it to be better than breakeven for you. Since you're not losing any money if you only get one caller (plus Villain), I suppose you could try for the raise, hoping that Villain doesn't make it two back to everyone. Unless I was pretty certain that everyone would stay to river, I probably wouldn't try it.
Then with one more caller in, the turn cap is pretty much neutral EV with an increase to your variance. Plus you give up the chance to c/r the river if you hit. If I did raise the turn, I wouldn't cap it.

edit: Missed lack of flop cap. Cap 'er, cap'n.

topspin · #8 06-10-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn play is close. Pumping draws on the turn is rare because usually there's not enough people to warrant any value. If there's ever a time to do it, it's now, I suppose; I'd put you at about 2:1 to come in by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's 15 outs and assumes that all of our straight outs are good. If a 9 falls, the board is 5789J and we'll lose to a T a non-negligible amount of time. We also split more often than usual since we only have a 1-card straight draw.

I'm figuring 9 clean outs for the flush, and another 3 outs or so for the straight, which gives him 26% equity or 1:3 odds. It could be argued that it's a % or two higher, but I think that's the right ball park.

Redd · #9 06-10-2005, 06:00 PM

Yeah, to be honest I just glanced at the bottom part of my cheat sheet, where the odds of completing the turn vary from like 2.5:1 to 1.6:1. If we're saying 12 outs, he's actually 2.8:1 to improve, n'est pas? Like I said, there's only value in it if all 3 will stay in; but I think your numbers are much better.

topspin · #10 06-10-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, to be honest I just glanced at the bottom part of my cheat sheet, where the odds of completing the turn vary from like 2.5:1 to 1.6:1. If we're saying 12 outs, he's actually 2.8:1 to improve, n'est pas? Like I said, there's only value in it if all 3 will stay in; but I think your numbers are much better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, 46/12 - 1 = 2.83. He needs 3 people to stay in for value (since we probably can't convince a fraction of a user to stick around [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), which he is just barely getting if no one folds. Even if no one folds, it's almost breakeven, and we might slow BB down if he just has an overpair to the board. In such cases, I'd prefer to raise the river if we hit our hand, since we'll be collecting 2BB each if we hit -- i.e. we get to push a much larger equity edge later by foregoing a small one here.