Laggiest Game Ever

[PseudoPserious]

Ooops, you're right -- I messed up the calculation in the earlier pot anyway; I forgot to reduce the expected profit when you missed your draw. Disregard my earlier post.

I'll try again, and hopefully not screw this one up.

For the suited connectors...
Assumptions:
5.25:1 to flop flush draw/OESD.
28:1 to flop a made hand.
28:1 to flop a gutshot.
~2:1 to hit your flush/OESD.
~5:1 to hit your gutshot.
You'll fold the flop without a draw or made hand.
You'll fold the river without making your draw.
All streets are capped at 4 bets.
Your hand, if you make it, will hold up 90% of the time.

Fold on the flop: (.77)*2BB
Flop a good draw and miss: (.16)*(2/3)*8BB
Flop a good draw, hit it, lose: (.16)*(1/3)*(.1)*12BB
Flop a made hand and lose: (.035)*(.1)*12BB
Flop a gutshot and miss: (.035)*(5/6)*8BB
Flop a gutshot, hit, lose: (.035)*(1/6)*(.1)*12BB
Total cost per hand you play and lose: ~2.75 BB

% won with good draw: (.16)*(1/3)*(.9)
% won with made hand: (.035)*(.9)
% won with gutshot: (.035)*(1/6)*(.9)
You'll win ~8.5% of the hands you play.

Break-even point: (2.75BB)/(.085)= ~32.5 BB

That is, there to be 32.5 BB in the pot from other people when you win for this to be EV neutral.

PP