Update as a beginner...

As some of you know, I am new to profitable poker. I have read a couple books, and read these forums. I currently have over 5000 hands played in about a week. I keep track of my own stats given by Pokerstars (in an excel spreadsheet). I opened PS with $50 last week, and I am currently sitting at $86. I mainly play SNG and have won 1st place 2 times, along with a 3rd thrown in there or so. I also took 2nd place on my first Multi-table SNG of 45 people.

Also, my roommate gave me $20 to play for him on BoDog where I was able to take it from $20 to 45$ in 2 days. Unfortunately, he plays on it too and now we are down to $8. It is his money though and no risk to me. He was going to give me a %, but it looks like that may not happen. Either way, that is more experience for me. It feels good that someone has the confidence in me and thinks I am a good poker player.

The purpose of this post is for the beginners who may feel frustrated and feel like they can't win. I have gotten frustrated, it happens to everyone. All you have to do is to be patient and wait for the strong cards. Don't play the marginal hands and don't try to get lucky. Luck will play its own game. Also, the biggest thing I see that beginners have a problem with is folding. DO NOT BE AFRAID TO FOLD! There are many times I'll fold K10 or A10...and others. Have patience and the money will come to you! GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE. [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[SheridanCat]

Here's a warning to you and anyone else just starting out and feeling good about their game.

Don't become focused on results. A week or two weeks or a month or a year mean nothing in the long run. Don't be fooled into thinking that you are a winning player because you are running well.

Variance will bite you - I guarantee it. You may not have experienced the 100BB downswing you may have read about. But you will - many times. You may experience a 200BB downswing. You may go broke.

Also, don't be fooled by the talk on this board. The majority of players on 2+2 are likely not long term winning players. Yes, there are more winners here than there are in the general population, but that's not saying much.

I've been playing regularly since 2000. Of those 5 years, 4 have finished positive and one slightly negative. I am not certain I am a winning player yet.

Forget the results day-to-day or month-to-month. Yes, track them, but don't let them make you think you are a great player.

Do strive to play correct poker more often than you play incorrect poker. Poker is a journey, not a goal. When you are stuck in a black hole of losing, that thought might help you.

For a real eye-opener, everyone should occasionally visit the Psych Forum.

Regards,

T

I agree, however, this is the difference between losing constantly, to winning constantly. I don't win every time I play. Two books turned my game around 100%.

[SheridanCat]

Yeah, I'm probably crazy.

Regards,

T

First, I'd like to thank SheridanCat for all the great posts in the beginners forums - I for one do appreciate them. Nice to have a seasoned player chime in for us beginners.

ItalianFX, reread what SheridanCat wrote, then reread it again. It's important, and I don't think you're quite getting it.

Great post Sheridan!


Here's a question though...what is an adequate sample size to determine(maybe not determine, but get a feel) if your are a winning player? We all know that 5k is not enough...how about 15k? 30k? Where do we begin getting "an idea" of how we are doing? I know, 30k hands is nothing to someone who plays seriously for two or 3 years, but is that good enough to get a sample? I mean could we really expect a run of bad hands(or good hands) that lasted 30k hands, or will that give us a pretty good average of good and bad runs?


Thanks!

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post Sheridan!


Here's a question though...what is an adequate sample size to determine(maybe not determine, but get a feel) if your are a winning player? We all know that 5k is not enough...how about 15k? 30k? Where do we begin getting "an idea" of how we are doing? I know, 30k hands is nothing to someone who plays seriously for two or 3 years, but is that good enough to get a sample? I mean could we really expect a run of bad hands(or good hands) that lasted 30k hands, or will that give us a pretty good average of good and bad runs?


Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I have over 100K hands in PT and I am not sure if I am a winning player. I think you need somewhere between 250k and 500k before you can start to make an honest assessment. Of course you can see trends in your play after 10-20k hands (PFR, VPiP, Aggression, etc.) that might indicate your potential, but getting caught up in stats has dangers.

Remember that we play a game that has a huge degree of luck involved. Of course there is skill, but do not discount the fact that someone can get more than their share of luck (either good or bad) for what seems like an extended period.

Focus on making correct decisions, then the results will take care of themselves.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
I have over 100K hands in PT and I am not sure if I am a winning player. I think you need somewhere between 250k and 500k before you can start to make an honest assessment.

[/ QUOTE ]

So before online poker, a pro had to play over a year to know if they were a winning player*? I don't buy it.

You can tell by theory if you're playing well enough to beat the game you play in, even if technically you don't have a large sample. I know I can beat the Foxwoods $2/4 because I play moderately well and my opponents play abysmally. I don't need a statistically significant sample to know that.

*50 hands/hr * 10 hours/day * 350 days / year -> 175K hands, all with fairly generous assumptions.

[SheridanCat]

Well, I posed the question in Poker Theory after doing a search. We'll see what people think there.

Regards,

T

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]

You can tell by theory if you're playing well enough to beat the game you play in, even if technically you don't have a large sample. I know I can beat the Foxwoods $2/4 because I play moderately well and my opponents play abysmally. I don't need a statistically significant sample to know that.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. The question was how can you know if you are a winning player overall. There are many games that I can, with absolute certainty, say I can crush (online NL $25, B&M 1/2 NL) and I don't need 175k hands to prove it.

I define a winning player as someone who can win regardless of the level they play because they possess the necessary knowledge and skill to beat the game. I know I can't answer this question because I haven't played enough hands to feel confident that my skills will allow me to succeed at NL $1000 or NL $2000 and I haven't played enough (or should I say any) hands in this environment to get a feel. So far I am doing fine in my progression, but I know I have a long way to go.