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#21
07-26-2005, 08:05 AM
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Re: I\'m a bit new to SnGs- Need advice
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: I fold KQo here. [/ QUOTE ] REALLY?! I would have sworn KQs is too strong to pass up. Shows what I know [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Edit: What happens at blinds 75/150, 100/200? Another Edit: oh yeah, there's an "o" there, woops...except I'd probably push that too [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] 
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#23
07-26-2005, 08:36 AM
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Re: I\'m a bit new to SnGs- Need advice
All in!
You'll be a favorite against most of the hands the BB is likely to call with. A Raise is out of the question unless it's All in. Since your image is tight, the likelihood of picking up the blinds is strong and overall makes this a EV+ play. Keep in mind KQs is 62% against a random hand. So assuming the button and SB fold, you'll be in pretty good shape. Finally, to maintain good stats in SNG you really need to get second or first. Obviously, third is better than fourth, but not by much. Even though three places pay out, I do everything I can to win second or better. In this situation, you need to double up to have a chance at second. In order to be a winning SNG player you have to risk bubbling in order to get second or better.
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#24
07-26-2005, 08:38 AM
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Re: I\'m a bit new to SnGs- Need advice
[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind KQs is 62% against a random hand. So assuming the button and SB fold, you'll be in pretty good shape. [/ QUOTE ] So you're 38% likely to go out of the tournament using this advice. This is the wrong way to think about it. It's a push here but not for these reasons. Or are you the type to call with AKo in the BB to a big stack when there's a much smaller stack than yourself, due to be blinded out soon..?
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#25
07-26-2005, 08:53 AM
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Re: Hand 2
[ QUOTE ]
thanks everyone. where can i find a technical explanation of ICM? [/ QUOTE ] http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html other info > detailed explanation or just plain http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/detail.html Always willing to help a Tigers fan. As long as said Tigers fan is also a U of M fan ready to kill a Spartan on sight.
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#28
07-26-2005, 09:00 AM
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Re: I\'m a bit new to SnGs- Need advice
[ QUOTE ]
You definitely push here! Your M is about 3 and you have a premium hand 4 handed. [/ QUOTE ] I push also, but his M is actually 7 here. ($1040 in stack divided by $150 in blinds)
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#30
07-26-2005, 09:09 AM
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Re: I\'m a bit new to SnGs- Need advice
Running the KQs situation through eastbay's SnG analyzer shows this to be a clear fold. This is a great problem to talk about since the ICM analyzer give such a different answer than the general concensus being developed here.
The calling ranges I assigned were: Hero UTG ( $1040 ) with KQs Button ( $700 ) -- Top 10% -- 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs SB ( $2235 ) -- Top 15% -- 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+ BB ( $4025 ) -- Top 20% -- 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+ With these calling ranges, the EV is -1.2%/-$1.41. A very clear fold. Only when you set the calling ranges to very tight do you get +EV. For instance, with all callers set at 5% (99+,AQ+) you get an EV of +0.3%. Looser calling ranges, particularly for the big stack, just make the EV worse. What are the lessons? - KQs is a sucker hand, even here. When you get called, you are usually behind. And you have 3 potential callers. - Early position means something, even short handed. Move this hand to the button and it becomes a push. - You are not the short stack. Change the stacks of the CO and button so you have the short stack, and the EV moves to -0.3%. Still a fold, but not as bad as -1.2%. - The blinds are not a problem. At 10x the BB you still have time. The blinds need to move to 150/300 for this to be a push (100/200 if you think the table is tighter than the calling ranges I assumed). - Don't push into big stacks. Move the short stack to the BB and it becomes a big push in most scenarios.
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